I'm going to need a bigger closet (dancing emoji)
Three things to watch in 2022.
Thoughts on changes the new year could bring:
Where are the workers? The country’s short 4.4 million vs. pre-pandemic. About half are early retirees, the vast majority over 70—they’re not coming back. Others are on the sidelines for various reasons. Virtually all live with a spouse who remains employed. Rising wages have let families with multiple jobs previously get by with just one. Also, massive fiscal aid made it easier to stay home, strike out on their own—business formations doubled during the crisis—or live off stock and crypto gains. It’s estimated up to 6 million who left jobs earned enough from crypto trading to stay away. That’s a volatile space—many will be back! With stimulus evaporating, the risk environment more challenging and some $2 trillion in excess household savings being spent down, 2022 should see these trends come off the boil. Then it’s back to work, for real.
What’s in your wallet? If it’s not a cryptocurrency, it’s going to be. Starting with bitcoin in 2008, crypto is still young but lasting long enough, and getting enough money and attention behind it, that it’s not going away. It’s gaining ever more credibility, with corporations putting it on their balance sheets as a store of value and everyday retailers accepting it as payment. You can buy lumber at Home Depot or coffee at Starbucks with it. This baby industry is no more volatile than gold was in the early ’70s when it started trading. It’s also making its way into portfolios as a pure source of diversification (it’s not correlated with anything) and is seeing growing acceptance among the quarter of the world that’s unbanked, the large majority of whom own a mobile phone and can make and receive remittances over it.
I WILL NOT cancel my order for my fox pillow We’ve all seen pictures of container ships backed up in the Port of Los Angeles and are sick of hearing about supply constraints and the inflation it’s causing. But progress is being made at the ports. And a lot of missing workers, including some 80,000 truckers, are likely to return next year as stimulus money runs low. So, as badly as things are delayed this year, it could be the opposite in 2022, with those stranded containers making their way across the country to store shelves and front porches all over. My fox pillow is in one of them and I will not cancel my order, no matter how many apologetic emails I get from them, postponing my delivery yet again and inviting me to do so. Sales in 2022! (Dancing emoji) Happy New Year!