Insights

Will the Federal Reserve pivot from its fight against inflation?

Not all regional banks are caught up in the turmoil. 

Fed Chair Powell made the case for another quarter-point hike amid the banking turmoil.

Simmering post-pandemic issues are raising the temperature.

Americans returning to pre-pandemic driving habits as gas prices come off the boil.

Rapid rate increases exposing issues that were hidden when rates were low.

Silicon Valley Bank's 'Perfect Storm' unlikely to deter Fed.

But banking issues brought to the fore this week are discomforting.

Weakening confidence should give Fed the slowdown it wanted.

The beats (hawkish Fed, strong jobs, surprise bank failure) keep coming.

In the IPO market, only the best business models survive.

The still hot labor market all but ensures the Federal Reserve stays aggressive.

Standard models and frameworks are less useful in rocky landings.

The recent pullback after a strong start to ’23 may be just a breather.

As Linda discusses inflationary '70s, a guest wonders if the Mister is with her.

U.S. equity and fixed-income markets are pointing in different directions.

Investors have begrudgingly capitulated to a still-hawkish Fed.

Supply and demand dynamics are supporting the municipal bond market.

As the Fed slows rate hikes, the ECB is staying the course.

The tragic Russia/Ukraine war could keep energy prices and inflation elevated.

As long as Americans keep spending, higher for longer may rule the day.

A varied macro-economic environment calls for a defensive strategy.

The global economic picture is setting up to look a lot like last year's.

The only good news is both seem much closer to a better future.

A revived Chinese economy faces global opportunities and challenges.

Combined with persistent inflation, Fed likely to remain vigilant.

Inflation, consumer strength move bonds closer to the Fed. Stocks still keeping some distance.

The Fed may pause this year, but a pivot is unlikely.

Europe may have dodged a recession, but a sobering picture could appear in 2024.

The economy is facing stronger headwinds than the markets realize.

Audiences pondered this market, and Linda's chauffeur, in her travels this week.

Signs suggest Europe’s economy might avoid a serious downturn.

Fundamentals suggest stocks could correct in the coming months before rallying into year-end.

And that's creating challenges for fixed-income positioning.

We're probably not yet at a "just right" stage for stocks, especially of the growth variety.

The surge of hires in January likely keeps the Fed in hawk mode.

Bulls looking past the crosscurrents … for now.

Decent headline gross domestic product growth belies weakness in several core components.

Can the equity rally survive deteriorating fundamentals, a tight-as-a-drum job market and inverted yield curve?

An improved high-yield asset class might not flash the same signs for reentry as in past economic downturns.

Persistent inflation and the Fed’s efforts to fight it will lead to a mild recession, but investors can find opportunities across equity, fixed income and cash.

Rancor aside, with ‘extraordinary measures’ the debate over the U.S. debt limit has time to be resolved.

In volatile markets, stock picking and picking your spots may offer investors the best options for returns.

Inflation cooling but labor market remains healthy.

2022 was tough. 2023 will have its challenges but be perched for opportunities.

Two market indicators suggest equities could enjoy a better year. 

Modestly more constructive on stocks as rocky landing approaches final phase.

Three things to watch in 2023.

A flush consumer could make for a slow-cession instead of a recession.

Opportunities can be found in small-cap markets.

But the ISM services decline was a bigger story.

Three things to watch in 2023.

Three things to watch in 2023.

Looks like 3 decades of disinflation are coming to an end.

Three things to watch in 2023.

Three things to watch in 2023.

Amid recession fears and high inflation, seasonal hiring plunges.

Consumers are showing restraint amid still-high inflation.

The Fed pushes back against market expectations.

Three things to watch in 2023.

Pessimistic markets are pricing in low recovery conditions.

China may prioritize security in the global economy.

A quick visit lifted spirits. Will Santa do the same for the markets?

Silvia Dall’Angelo, Donald Ellenberger and Steve Chiavarone discuss global inflation and whether the markets have already priced in a recession. 

College costs have soared. 

The U.S. economy is slowing across the board.

The Fed can't like the strong job growth and surge in wages in November.

You have to ask: is he here to hurt or help?

FOMC voters must stick to the data to make their next decision on rates.

Municipal securities have much to offer if the economy slows.

Potential recession is likely to be mild.

2023 outlook to us looks like more of the same as "rocky landing" proceeds.

But it's a lot more expensive this year.

Not until the stimulus stockpile is gone. But what then?

Perhaps. But the focus should be on quality.

Mix shift in retail spending points to slower economic growth.

Money market funds reflect rate hikes.

Many reasons for a rally but don't expect it to last.

Wide corporate bond spreads are enticing, but the time to add to credit sectors hasn't come yet.

Republicans fail to achieve expected midterm election gains.

Play it safe with cash until further clarity.

Maybe everyone, including markets, could use a little boring.

A weakening dollar and other trends bode well for EM debt.

Energy sector stays hot.

Solid week of employment data keeps Fed aggressive.

And it doesn't look like the Fed is planning one anytime soon.

Allow time before setting sail with international opportunities.

Fed Chair Powell indicates the pace of hikes is not as crucial as arriving at the right place.

Remaining defensive as 2023 consensus on earnings and Fed remains too optimistic.

Money market yields have returned to pre-GFC levels.

Positive Q3 GDP growth provides a respite.

Investors may seek cover in value stocks.

Consider the big picture when assessing markets ... and life.

Hawkish Fed prompts us to lower our GDP growth estimates.

Consumer staples come out on top.

And they may get it as midterms seem to be trending the GOP's way.

How climbing rents keep inflation elevated.

Monetary policy may impact midterm rally.

As they bide their time, investors should focus on strengthening portfolios.

Investors bracing for a challenging third-quarter earnings season.

Dividends hold up against volatility.

Use, duration and timeframe can diversify investments.

This market has been in a bad place for some time.

With peak yields in sight, better times may be too.

Everything we thought might go wrong at start of the year, has.

Whether or not this bear market survives October, investors will face an unnerving environment.

The sun's not the only thing that's hot in Hawaii these days.

Numerous factors affect our outlook. 

Fed projections are less useful these days.

More warnings appear. 

Disasters all over have markets on edge.

Investors may feel winter chill in Europe.

Fed Chair Powell reiterates hawkish Jackson Hole message.

Investors seeking shelter from stormy markets.

Commodity based economies positioned to succeed.

Control results weak, but school shopping solid.

How much corporate earnings fall could determine where the market bottoms.

Amid this week's chaos, good vibes in visits to Atlanta and Nashville. 

Higher, sooner and longer for these hawkish policymakers.

Queen Elizabeth II was a constant in a world of turmoil. 

There are reasons to think it might.

Perhaps Wall Street can take a cue from Main Street and just chill.

Relatively healthy jobs report keeps Fed hiking rates.

 Cash has become a compelling asset class.

The dollar has been on the rise. What’s the implication for U.S. investors?

Fed Chair uses Jackson Hole keynote to reset investor expectations. 

'70s stagflation made many people grumpy, which is why no one wants a repeat.

The housing market slowdown is a correction, not a crisis.

And with it, the rally in stocks is likely ending, too.

Bears and bulls facing off on what the Fed may do.

Their answers could play a big role in midterm elections.

A lot is riding on a Fed pivot.

Quantitative tightening puts pressure on risk assets.

What will the White House do with student debt?

Hot July jobs report keeps Fed on warpath against inflation.

Ways to position for the market ahead.

Continuing rally hopes face structural inflation headwinds.

Seeking opportunities amid volatility.

Next month will mark a half-year of hikes, time enough to evaluate their impact.

But high inflation and Fed tightening are taking us closer.

Uncertainties casting doubt on the rally.

How supply-chain issues have driven up values.

Battery technology, charging stations, safety and costs among key issues.

It's inflation versus recession with the Fed in the starring role.

Rising recession risk favors defensive dividend stocks, cash and Treasuries.

Hot inflation, stagflation concerns, recession fears and a hawkish Fed.

Investment and life lessons from Stephen Auth.

After years of playing defense, it's time to think offense.

Inflation and recession face off as the market weighs which is worse.

Fed on track for a 0.75% hike in late July.

Markets might be setting up for '70s' era modest returns.

The real impacts come after the elections.

And the storm might not be over.

Could it be setting investors up for a glorious winter?

Where to turn when risk rates rise.

Consumers will play a large role in determining the depth of the global recession.

Selling equities into rally as outlook for 'Rocky Landing' grows more likely.

Patience and diversification are key.

Fed policy shift should cool the housing market.

Dividends have withstood market volatility.

Unfortunately for workers, wage inflation at heart of Fed tightening.

Nuclear could see a resurgence as world turns to cleaner energy.

Markets are adjusting to the new Fed regime.

Dividend-paying sectors have remained steady through good times and bad.

Can the Fed negotiate a soft landing?

Consumer Price Index surges to a new 40-year high.

Helpful qualities in a market that's distributing so much pain.

Investors seek to reduce risk.

Contradictory data offers something for optimists and pessimists.

Fed remains on track for more half-point hikes.

Consumers powered the recovery and markets. Will they hold up? 

Stagflation and recession risks growing.

A near-term bottom may be in sight.

No recession on the immediate horizon.

Consumers may hold the key to whether it's a recession or "softish" landing. 

The U.S. should ramp up energy production.

Cash tops shopping list but other possibilities starting to look promising.

Our bias is to add to risk. We’re just not there … yet.

The asset-backed securities market continues to shine.

War-driven food crisis could spawn destabilizing uprisings all over.

Is the labor market slowing?

Unrelenting demand presents challenges as Fed seeks to unwind price pressures.

Fed still on track for a half-point hike.

Washington policies helped to create runaway inflation.

Demand for power continues to climb.

Russia’s invasion, higher energy costs, soaring inflation, hawkish Fed…