Insights

Linda heard a lot of worries during her Phoenix visit. But the one above? Hmm.

The labor market juggernaut rolls on.

The market's run should make for happy holidays even if it's a short shopping season.

A strong labor market, rising wages and lower gas prices represent a trifecta for consumer spending.

Barbara Miller says stores that best match online with traditional should keep doing well.

November and December retail sales are looking bright this year.

What can investors expect in 2020? CIO Deborah Cunningham explains her economic outlook.

What's the best indicator of the economy's health: strong consumers or weak manufacturing?

Reminiscing as she made the rounds in New Jersey, Linda wonders if a melt-up is developing.

Three Hermes portfolio managers share their views of the coming year.

A review of where we stand on our top 5 surprises for this year is, well, surprisingly good!

Not where Linda Duessel goes, including this week's audience in Vancouver.

It doesn't matter where Presidents Trump and Xi meet as long as they do before Dec. 15.

As long as investor sentiment remains subdued, this uptrend could continue.

Combined with healthy services growth and first phase of trade deal, stocks have surged.

Storm clouds that have been hanging over the market are dissipating.

But with pressing issues such as the repo market to address, it can't relax.

Sports and investing are a lot alike: They stir passions and are obsessed with performance.

It only makes us more confident the S&P 500 will hit our long-standing year-end target of 3,100.

There are a lot of reasons to think the economy is catching a second wind.

With confidence and dry powder, consumers won't be spooked this fall.

Dramatic headlines aside, market data is lining up for a potential run in equities.

In Nashville and Kansas meetings with bankers, impeachment and Syria never came up.

Geopolitical and economic developments are turning positive and should drive stocks higher this year.

What should investors expect from the IPO market in 2020?

The devil's in the details of the yet-to-be-signed U.S.-China mini trade deal.

Halloween will bring together many global events that may haunt the U.S. economy.

A variety of factors, from dovish Fed to a manufacturing bottom, could rally stocks into year-end.

If a trade deal emerges, leading to expectations for GDP and corporate-profit growth, look for a year-end rally.

Trade continues to drive the market as the seasonal tailwinds begin to blow.

What are the hallmarks of an investable IPO?

How to identify opportunities in the growth space.

Job-seekers are ghosting employers in one of the tightest labor markets in 50 years.

Sometimes, bad news is good news for the market.

After being rocked by poor manufacturing and service numbers, even a mixed report brings respite.

Impeachment talk and other geopolitical tensions aren't yet weighing down investors.

The chances of Trump being removed from office are negligible.

The dollar has strengthened even as the Fed has cut rates.

Lower yields should make for higher multiples. It hasn't happened ... yet.

The Fed itself isn't sure of policy in the rest of 2019.

Worries about oil shock are overblown as trade, Fed dominate market concerns.

There's been a violent shift from momentum to value. Will it continue?

Probable Fed cuts and healthy consumers suggest the inverted yield curve is crying wolf.

Brainwashed investors think things are really bad. That may be good for stocks.

Expect the soft August employment figures to be revised upward.

For every action, there is a reaction, a dualism that should prove soothing for investors.

As global market rates move closer to zero, policymakers confront what "effective lower bound'' is for the Fed's benchmark rate.

Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of International Fixed Income Ihab Salib discusses how emerging markets might fare, if a global recession materializes.

Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of International Fixed Income Ihab Salib offers insights on how trade tensions are affecting global bonds and what’s driving the strength of the dollar.

Politicized proposals calling for it don't make the grade.

The Fed leader successfully addressed several issues weighing on monetary policy.

With negative-yielding debt at a record and climbing, we're in uncharted waters.

Millennials' biggest impact on consumption and housing will come in the years ahead.

Some argue a more moderate, incremental approach to fixing health care is better.

There could be many reasons for the yield-curve inversion. More than $16 trillion of negative-yield global debt is certainly among them.

U.K.'s path to the Oct. 31 EU exit deadline is fraught with worrisome scenarios.

New rules getting rid of 'dirty' fuel used in shipping could boost refiners.

Is this soft patch and sell-off an omen of things to come or a pause that refreshes? For now, the evidence suggests the latter.

Solutions for avoiding insolvency involve shared sacrifice and political compromise.

If one does the math, it's difficult to see how U.S. consumers will be hurt by new tariffs on China. It's easier to see how China, with its response, may end up hurting itself.

Fed disappointment and Trump tariff threat spark volatility, but the longer-term story on stocks remains a good one.

A healthy report does not dissuade the Fed from another rate cut.

As breathtaking as the market’s 20%-plus rise has been from December’s panicky low, it seems all the market needs to grind higher is no news.

In a 3-in-1 piece, Steve Chiavarone makes the case that a recession isn't imminent, shows how the U.S. may benefit from the trade war, and explains why technology and millennials should buttress markets over the longer term.

GDP was boosted by retail sales, personal consumption and government spending.

A visit to Colorado helps Linda make sense of the Fed and the markets.

A more dovish Fed is among the reasons Federated is sticking with 2019's 2.7% GDP growth forecast.

The Fed is sending signals that July's expected rate cut could go beyond a quarter point.

Senior Equity Strategist Linda Duessel offers insights on what is likely to move the equity market in the months ahead and whether tariffs still pose a challenge. She also discusses where investors may find opportunity in this environment.

It stands for Modern Monetary Theory, an in-vogue populist policy that's not much concerned with deficits.

The benefits may not exceed the costs of raising the minimum wage.

How will earnings, tariffs and interest rates affect the markets?

We're looking to the yield curve, currencies and security selection for alpha.

Jump in payrolls raises questions about market's priced-in Fed cuts.

Celebrating our country's birth and this record-setting expansion.

We're cautiously bullish on stocks this summer but see potential storm clouds.

We don’t think this business cycle has run its course.

The election season is adding to uncertainties, but that's not such a bad thing.

Federated takes advantage of strong June, pares equity overweight in stock-bond model amid uncertainties.

2019 is shaping up to be another big year for initial public offerings.

And why they likely won't if the Fed doesn't cut rates later.

It's all about technology and brainpower.

CIO for Global Money Markets Debbie Cunningham discusses her outlook for the second half of the year.

All the angst over tariffs and trade belies a consumer who is doing just fine.

The journey toward a trade deal has been turbulent, but we eventually expect to see land and another up-leg for stocks.

Increasingly smarter, eco-friendly cars require continuous tech updates.

Major changes must be made to address the decreasing birth and fertility rate in the U.S.

May's jobs report was a downer, so why are the markets so upbeat?

Profits, margins and valuations look attractive regardless of what the Fed may or may not do.

Investors are overreacting to the flattening of the short end of the yield curve.

Using tariffs to address a non-trade issue with Mexico creates a destabilizing undertow.

But we reject the pervading pessimistic view about the U.S. economy.

Despite slowing manufacturing, ugly U.S.-China trade talks, Brexit mess and more, 2019 GDP likely to be solid.

Our melt-up scenario has melted with the prolonged trade talks, but not our longer bullish view on the year.

When it comes to stocks, the "middle ground'' doesn't have to mean ho-hum.

Shoppers shrugged off several issues causing 'Mapril' retail sales to be solid.

The U.S.-China trade fracas has not roiled credit markets.

"Trust but verify," an iconic message of the Reagan era, is just as apt today when it comes to the U.S.-China trade war.

U.S.-China trade negotiations have gotten testy, but a resolution likely will be reached, calming market angst.

We still expect an eventual trade deal and view interim market messiness as an opportunity.

With volatility rising on trade uncertainty, investors may desire some stability.

The best time to consider small caps? Any time.

April sees surprisingly strong jobs gain, near 50-year low in jobless rate.

Linda, who isn't (her sister is), sees potential trade-war surprises as risks to an otherwise bullish backdrop.

Q1 GDP growth was driven by stronger inventory and net trade.

Some sectors face headwinds but earnings and the economy remain supportive.

On continued benign inflation and strong P/E multiples, we are sticking to our full-year S&P target of 3,100.

It may not feel like it to some, but most Americans did get a tax cut.

The risk markets’ sharp reversal after a tough December owes a lot to the Federal Reserve’s decision to forego future rate increases.

Fundamentals and news flow suggest the stock market may be heading to new highs.

Earnings, economy and technicals supportive of stocks.

Even if Q1 earnings decline, a year-end target of 3,100 on the S&P 500 remains our forecast.

After a strong first quarter, high yield and other credit securities settle into a clip-the-coupon environment.

April tends to be kind, not cruel, to stocks.

After all the concern, Q1 ended up having a solid average monthly gain of 180,000 jobs.

The Fed essentially used the March meeting to reboot its message after its dramatic policy shift over the last two quarters.

Concerns about an inverted curve may be cast in a paradigm that no longer exists.

As the saga drags on, there's one outcome the markets almost certainly wouldn't like—a no-deal Brexit.

Corporate earnings and GDP growth got tangled in several temporary issues in Q1 and should bounce back.

By most measures, a recession isn't in the cards anytime soon.

The Federal Reserve was 3-for-3 in correct policy responses at its recent meeting.

Uncertainty climbs as investors interpret a dovish Fed and rally in long Treasury bonds as a possible recession signal. Might it be an opportunity?

With the secular bull marking its sixth birthday, there's plenty of room left to run. Helping it along are the still-deep scars from 2008-09's near-Armageddon experience.

The FOMC statement confirms the dramatic shift in Fed expectations since late 2018.

The middle of the stock market is making a comeback.

In a week of lies and disappointments, the market continued to run, hitting a high for the year.

With no hike expected, markets will look to changes in the dot plot and balance sheet taper for answers.

We think EM stocks are poised for a comeback.

Why should the long-term investor consider small-cap growth stocks? Diversification and performance.

There was a lot of noise surrounding February's jobs number, but the bottom line is, the labor market remains healthy.

A pullback not only is expected, it will be welcomed by many.

At this later stage of the cycle, Federated views this asset class primarily as a good 'clip the coupon' story.

China-U.S. trade outcomes range from very good to not good at all.

If they do, stocks could float to our 3,100 year-end target.

A number of trends are impacting the way this market operates, and that's not necessarily healthy for investors.

Fed's Powell wants the markets to forget his vacillations of late 2018.

Technology continues to refine and reshape the way Americans get care.

Capex and consumer spending beat expectations, helping to drive GDP growth of 2.6%.

This expansion is on track to become the nation’s longest, yet it’s behaving as if it’s closer to the middle than late innings.

Developments are breaking the way we thought they may, boding well for our year-end forecast of 3,100 on the S&P

Rising optimism suggests the market is overbought, but momentum suggests that any pullback may prove short-lived.

Democratic tax proposals might hurt everyone if they pull the U.S. into recession.

The Fed is supporting the market. Might China be next?

Retail sales were solid in October and November; what happened in December?

A look at economic and political stress in Britain, Italy and ... well ... really the entire EU.

The next few weeks could prove significant as the market awaits signs of progress on U.S.-China trade and the global economy.

January's rally was particularly strong across fixed-income credit sectors. With spreads narrowing, momentum could ease in the months ahead. But the outlook remains positive.

It's not just online shopping. Retailers are using big data in all its forms to anticipate and meet customers' needs ... and to operate more efficiently, too.

But expect sharp revisions in coming months as it fades.

Fed Chair Powell should have let the statement do the talking.

The White House and Congress must come to terms on full immigration reform to avoid another shutdown.

A conversational shift by midyear from "synchronized global slowdown" to "synchronized global stimulus" heads the list.

China and the unwinding of post-crisis policies likely will weigh on markets for some time. But short of a recession, it's still a bullish story for stocks.

There's a lot of pessimism as earnings season is set to go full bore. That may be a good thing.

The dawn of the fifth generation of wireless technology suggests a bright future for U.S. economic investment and growth.

The Fed, China and earnings appear set to break the bulls' way, but the bears should still have their moments in coming months.

Once 2018's messiness subsides, the market and economy should take a turn for the better, with the S&P 500 eventually hitting new highs in 2019.

The growing use of data-driven technology and the increasing numbers of millennials in their prime years are converging to play a vital role in reshaping the U.S. and global economy. A primary beneficiary? The stock market.