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2 minute read
7 minute read
Signs of resurgent inflation may be gradually countered by a change in the labor market.
5 minute read
Biden left more questions than answers about his economic policies in his SOTU address.
Can an effervescent market lead to durable gains?
Strong headline gains but weak data underneath.
The GRANOLAS group of stocks are Europe’s equivalent of the Mag 7.
Magnificent Seven continue to outperform.
6 minute read
2024 could be a great year if we navigate it right.
4 minute read
Strong reports have swayed expectations for rate cuts rather than the Fed's constant blaring.
What's even better than a Goldilocks market?
Strong wage growth keeps Fed cuts off the bases.
9 minute read
Remaining “Long and Strong” as earnings season and economic data vindicates optimists.
Inflation data reminded us this week that we're not out of the woods yet.
Dismal retail sales in January cap a weak holiday spending season.
3 minute read
Will China replicate the success of Japanese and Korean automakers?
Signs are pointing to the IPO market continuing to normalize in 2024.
Less fixated on the Fed, the market now focuses on the economy's resilience.
Stocks strong start portends a volatile but positive year.
New investment-grade corporate bond issuance is pouring into the market.
In an economy like this, the Fed is in no hurry
Strong headline gains but a mixed picture beneath the surface.
The Fed removed its tightening bias, opening the door to rate cuts.
After a bumpy 2023, small-cap U.S. stocks are in a good place.
Should keep the Fed on the sidelines in March.
The market continues to move higher, but more breadth would be welcome.
Secular bull market reconfirmed; long-term prospects rising.
There's plenty of data to cause concern but, for now, even more to prompt a smile.
Labor market and consumer spending firm, while inflation rises.
What we got right…and wrong…in a volatile year.
Sticky inflation remains a concern, but maybe the path forward is muddling through.
Zero for two out of the gate.
Three things to watch in 2024.
Strong job gains and rising wages keep Fed rate cuts on hold.
The consumer and corporate profits will decide whether the January effect has weight or not.
The Santa Claus Rally advanced most of our 2024 market call into 2023, but there’s plenty of room left for stock pickers as the market rally broadens.
Inflation grinds lower, the Fed throws in the towel and holiday spending slows.
The Fed now projects rate cuts in 2024, just not as many as the markets have.
Fed rate cuts not coming anytime soon.
But investors aren't going to let you spoil this rally. Next year? We'll see.
As the economy slows across the board, the Fed is done hiking rates.
Market momentum & fundamentals are keeping the rally going.
The markets have swung too far by forecasting multiple Fed rate cuts in 2024.
12 minute read
Expecting market to broaden out as we advance to 5,000 on the S&P.
We believe next year could present compelling opportunities within high yield.
Thanksgiving brings increased travel, falling prices and rallying financial markets.
The economy and markets can't take on much more debt without getting sick.
Despite Biden’s terrible polling, Democrats performed well in off-year elections, which should worry the GOP.
Markets are serving up rallies for the holidays.
These stocks are well positioned to thrive in a higher-for-longer environment.
Despite high rates, the large amount of maturing debt in the coming years is not a crisis.
Reasons to believe the equity rally has legs.
Financial markets rally on perceived Fed pause.
With earnings and economic news not as bad as feared, markets can grind higher into year-end.
Weak jobs report pushes Fed to sidelines.
8 minute read
Will the stock and bond rallies have staying power?
The Fed didn't hike. That doesn't mean it's done.
The Fed wants more time and data as it looks to December's meeting.
Will it keep the Fed in play?
Geopolitics are trumping the economy and earnings among investor worries.
Though it is also very dark in the middle of the night.
Back-to-School sales were soft, but consumers are spending elsewhere.
A surprisingly strong economy could mean higher for longer, longer
After weathering the storm, the housing market is poised to boost growth despite Fed headwinds.
Employment, inflation and bonds combine for twists and turns for the journey of Fed policy.
It's not just the pilot who is confused as markets wrestle with yields.
As markets stumble forward into earnings, winners and losers likely to emerge.
Disruptions minor so far amid a global outlook that's a bit meh.
Being defensive in credit may mean a little pain for a bigger potential gain.
But overall labor-market picture is mixed.
The bond market used to be dull...
Equity markets have popped this year—but not for everyone.
Yet another shift in the Fed's SEP has the markets again playing defense.
Rates may be resetting higher but that doesn't mean stocks must suffer.
Wage inflation could keep the Fed engaged.
Evidence suggests the move up in longer yields is nearing an end.
When global investors think Asia, they're increasingly thinking India.
Fed plans to keep interest rates higher for longer.
The Fed opts against raising rates, but doesn't rule out another hike this year.
At the end of the day, it'll be a gift for competitors.
With Growth a crowded and expensive trade, might Value offer better value?
School spending slows while inflation rises.
China's vehicle manufacturers soon might take the global pole position.
Moderating core inflation doesn't ease consumer concerns about everyday prices.
Maintaining cautiously optimistic stance as macro concerns fade.
Data point in different directions.
Lots of reasons to expect all-important spending to hold up.
But can the rise in workers' negotiating power since Covid 19 continue?
Unloved sectors may be setting up nicely.
Softer job growth could prevent the Fed from hiking again.
Fed Chair Powell addressed inflation targets and market expectations in Jackson Hole.
Contrarian approaches may offer a missing piece to investor portfolios.
Let's hope so because massive and growing deficits are spooking markets.
Powell uses Jackson Hole keynote to reiterate Fed’s vigilance to lower inflation.
They've stabilized somewhat but still face pressures.
Spoiler: People remain paramount.
The rapidly developing peninsular country has 3 factors going for it.
And has a lot of firepower left.
Buyable entry point emerging for stocks.
The conditions suppressing the IPO market since 2021 appear to be subsiding.
The evidence so far suggests not a lot.
The marriage of AI and quantum computers could take things to unimaginable levels.
Electric vehicles face bumps in the road to reach their lofty goals.
Rhetorically speaking, China may have long Covid.
For equity investors, peak pessimism presents potential opportunities.
Payroll growth slows, but wages stay hot.
Senior Portfolio Manager R.J. Gallo can think of seven reasons.
Its potential, for good and for bad, is just starting to be appreciated.
The new regulations for money funds don't change their value proposition.
Fed may remain vigilant.
Might this rally be due for some consolidation?
With the impact of its tightening still not apparent, the Fed opted for another modest rate hike.
Upgrading year-end S&P target to 5,000 as rocky landing scenario nears end.
Recession odds have fallen.
Might a summer storm lie ahead for investors?
Consensus has taken a beating but is still standing.
MBS issued by U.S. housing agencies could have advantages for investors if the economy slows.
Waiting for the program to go bust isn’t an option.
It’s Christmas in July for equities. Will the Fed be a Scrooge?
The positives and negatives of the new SEC money market amendments.
Why we think Japan could finally outperform after three lost decades.
Defensive positioning didn’t hurt the first half. In the second half, it may help.
But strong enough for the Fed to hike yet again.
The first half was a consensus killer; will the second half be one too?
Higher-for-longer rates can be beneficial for dividend strategies.
The markets have finally listened to hawkish Fed speak.
Will tech stocks cool after torrid first-half surge?
Don’t fight the Fed. Don’t fight the tape either.
As global central banks take different paths, where might investors look?
As ‘Rocky Landing’ enters final phases, equity market remains upwardly biased.
Could energy buck conventional wisdom?
The consumer has a lot more firepower than many appreciate.
Dichotomy between nominal and core inflation declines keeps Fed engaged.
If it is, bubbles can last a long time.
The Fed skipped a rate hike but suggested more could come.
Thanks to ChatGPT, investors want to know how to capitalize on generative AI.
The current U.S. immigration system is an inadequate solution to population decline.
The pain trade is up. The late '90s' parallels are eerie.
Our southern neighbor is firing on all cylinders.
A hot headline increase of 339,000 jobs in May but colder details put Fed in wait-and-see mode.
A very narrow market trading at extremes makes for discomfort.
Spending on discretionary luxury and staples can offer refuge in this environment.
Following the official suspension of the federal debt limit, expect the U.S. Treasury to issue a massive amount of securities.
The office credit market is in trouble, but the broad CRE sector appears healthy.
A strong consumer and robust labor market aren't so fun for the Fed.
Inconsistent economic reports cloud the path of U.S. growth.
The bump in April retail sales belies a deceleration of consumer spending.
Might stocks offering 'growth at reasonable prices' provide refuge?
And the case for bond returns is getting stronger.
Investors grow impatient waiting for the big downturn that may never fully come.
The Fed may be done hiking, but its subsequent pause could last awhile.
That could determine if above- or below-average historical returns are likely.
Barring the emergence of more bullish data, we expect the Fed to pause rate hikes this year.
Opportunities as varied as countries that fall under the emerging markets umbrella.
Looming risks make it hard to assess where markets go next.
The Fed raised rates again, but hinted it soon might be time to take a breather.
What's behind the substantial rise in assets of money market vehicles?
GDP growth slows, but inflation remains elevated
With volatile markets ahead, stocks enter a period of limbo.
With so many mixed messages, no wonder investors are confused.
Is the debate much ado about nothing or a slow-moving train wreck?
Slower growth and stubborn inflation argue for patience and selectivity.
We see GDP growth slowing over the balance of 2023.
Perils lurk but so does the potential for upside surprises.
Volatile markets can offer opportunities.
Fed rate hikes finally may be starting to bite.
Mounting clues that the economy has reached a turning point.
Maintaining cautiously constructive stance amid confusing outlook.
As the global panic subsides, patient investors may find opportunities.
The Federal Reserve’s dual function as regulator and policy-setter has been on display.
Should investors buy the dips or sell the rips as we approach earnings season?
For as long as the economy is stronger for longer.
Evaluating nonfinancial factors contributing to the fall of Silicon Valley Bank.
Will the Federal Reserve pivot from its fight against inflation?
Not all regional banks are caught up in the turmoil.
Fed Chair Powell made the case for another quarter-point hike amid the banking turmoil.
Simmering post-pandemic issues are raising the temperature.
Rapid rate increases exposing issues that were hidden when rates were low.
Weakening confidence should give Fed the slowdown it wanted.
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