Market Views - Fixed Income

Our experienced investment professionals have managed fixed income portfolios for more than 40 years. Choose an article to read our views on the economy and today’s bond markets.

FedWatch: No hike—and no signal for one, either 
Apr. 27, 2016 :: R.J. Gallo
Yellen steers the policy statement in between the differing positions of the members.
FedWatch: Don't even think about it 
Apr. 21, 2016 :: R.J. Gallo
A rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting would be a shock.
Market Memo: Why spreads matter 
Apr. 19, 2016 :: Mark E Durbiano
The financial world has plenty of jargon, but 'spreads' are a concept investors should be comfortable with to understand high-yield bonds.
Fixed Income Outlook: The math—and the economy—favor credit 
Apr. 13, 2016 :: Robert J Ostrowski
The rate and economic environment are still constructive for spread products, but not so much for Treasuries.
In Short: This EM rally should have legs 
Apr. 6, 2016 :: Ruggero de'Rossi
A stabilizing China, massive ECB asset purchases and falling correlations between the EM and oil bolster the emerging-market outlook.
FedWatch: And then there were two 
Mar. 16, 2016 :: Donald T Ellenberger
The FOMC didn't hike rates but did cut the number of expected hikes in 2016 from four to two.
FedWatch: March meeting could set the stage for future hikes 
Mar. 10, 2016 :: Donald T Ellenberger
A rate hike is very unlikely, but will the Fed hint one is just around the corner?
Market Memo: Default rates in energy don't spell doom 
Feb. 24, 2016 :: Mark E Durbiano
Investors already have paid a price for the likely coming wave of defaults in energy.
Market Memo: Room for optimism in emerging-market bonds 
Feb. 17, 2016 :: Ruggero de'Rossi
Three headwinds—slower global growth, a risk-asset sell-off and lower oil prices—may be on the verge of becoming tailwinds for EM debt.
In Short: Oil's spill starting to sink credit ratings 
Feb. 11, 2016 :: John T Gentry
Even the largest energy companies are seeing credit-rating downgrades unthinkable only a few years ago.
Q&A: Conundrums abound for Fed 
Jan. 28, 2016 :: Donald T Ellenberger
Why 10-year Treasury yields haven't plunged and other macro topics.
FedWatch: Fed has eyes on global markets, slowing U.S. growth 
Jan. 27, 2016 :: R.J. Gallo
The FOMC stays pat with rates, and won't let "financial and international developments" or recent softness in U.S. economy keep it from normalization.
FedWatch: Fed likely to address market volatility but not act 
Jan. 22, 2016 :: R.J. Gallo
The Fed is not ready to abandon normalization merely due to a difficult start to the year in equities and oil.
Fixed Income Outlook: Giving credit its due 
Jan. 13, 2016 :: Robert J Ostrowski
Despite 2015's challenges, the credit side of the fixed-income world is still our favorite, led by high yield. We also are positioning for modestly rising rates and a yield-curve flattener, with short rates rising faster than long rates.
FedWatch: A dovish hike 
Dec. 16, 2015 :: Donald T Ellenberger
Yellen was able to please hawks with a hike, and doves with plenty of qualifiers.
Q&A: What's going on in the high-yield market 
Dec. 14, 2015 :: Mark E Durbiano
Struggles at a fund that specializes in very distressed companies rattle the market, but the fundamentals don't merit the broad-based scare.
FedWatch: Time is nigh for a hike 
Dec. 11, 2015 :: Donald T Ellenberger
But the FOMC statement is expected to sing its familiar chorus that future hikes will be cautious and gradual.
In Short: What's ahead for high yield? 
Dec. 2, 2015 :: Mark E Durbiano
Outside of energy and metals, the high-yield market should see performance improve in coming months as the economy continues to grow.
FedWatch: The Fed is aware of the clock 
Oct. 28, 2015 :: R.J. Gallo
Policymakers signal that a December rate hike remains in play.
Fixed Income Liquidity: The new SEC proposals and Federated 
Oct. 27, 2015 :: Robert J Ostrowski
The subject of bond market liquidity continues to get a lot of attention through press articles and proposed Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reforms.
FedWatch: Time isn't on the Fed's side 
Oct. 23, 2015 :: R.J. Gallo
An October surprise, i.e., rate hike, is unlikely but if policymakers want to initiate tightening before year-end, only one meeting's left after this one
Fixed Income Outlook: For now, forget about the Fed 
Oct. 9, 2015 :: Robert J Ostrowski
With rates staying low, the action in the fixed-income arena remains focused on credit products
Q&A: A silver lining for EM bonds? 
Sept. 22, 2015 :: Ruggero de'Rossi
No longer are emerging markets a monolithic asset class as some countries are fairly well positioned in the current global environment
FedWatch: Are we there yet … No! 
Sept. 17, 2015 :: Donald T Ellenberger
Citing 'recent global economic and financial developments' as one reason, the Fed keeps rates near zero.
FedWatch: Forget 1-in-4; we say 50-50 
Sept. 10, 2015 :: Donald T Ellenberger
We think the likelihood of Fed rate hike next week is higher than the market does.
Market Memo: An overdue correction, nothing worse 
Aug. 27, 2015 :: Donald T Ellenberger
Bonds had their correction two summers ago; now it was equities' turn. But that's all it is.
FedWatch: Inching closer to 'See you in September' 
Jul. 29, 2015 :: R.J. Gallo
Fed policymakers cite improving labor market, a sign that they are moving closer to raising rates
FedWatch: Go ahead and go to the beach 
Jul. 24, 2015 :: R.J. Gallo
The markets would be very surprised if the Fed says anything of substance after it meets next week
Market Memo: The case for bonds remains solid 
Jul. 14, 2015 :: Mark E. Durbiano
A Fed liftoff, which appears to be moving closer, isn't necessarily a bad thing for bonds
Fixed Income Outlook: Greece is not the word 
Jul. 13, 2015 :: Robert J. Ostrowski
Credit still favored over Treasuries as growth fundamentals keep trumping geopolitical worries
Puerto Rico's debt woes: What does it mean for municipal bond holders? 
Jul. 2, 2015 :: Lee R. Cunningham II R.J. Gallo
Puerto Rico’s troubles are somewhat unique and the prospect of panic selling of these bonds or heavy selling of municipal bonds in general seems low.
FedWatch: Almost there 
Jun. 17, 2015 :: Donald T. Ellenberger
The Fed did not raise rates today, but its FOMC statement suggests it will soon.
FedWatch: Trail of 'dots' should lead the way 
Jun. 11, 2015 :: Donald T. Ellenberger
With June lift-off very unlikely, Fed's "dot" chart will help the market discern the pace of anticipated future hikes.
In Short: A buying opportunity for munis? 
May 28, 2015 :: R.J. Gallo
A heavy supply of muni issuance has undermined year-to-data performance, but this supply-demand imbalance should prove temporary
In Short: Why longer yields spiked (and may take a break) 
May 14, 2015 :: R.J. Gallo
Stabilizing sovereign euro yields and continued data disappointments could cause near-term retracement in long yields; but bias remains up
In Short: Emerging-market Fed fears may be overdone 
May 7, 2015 :: Ruggero de'Rossi
Underlying conditions are improving and a Fed rate hike may not be all that disruptive

Webcast: Fixed Income Outlook

Join Senior Portfolio Manager R.J. Gallo each quarter as he shares insights on timely market trends and topics.