Market Views - Equity

Our experienced, specialized investment professionals have delivered disciplined equity portfolios for more than thirty years. Choose an article to read our views of today’s economy and global stock markets.

Orlando's Outlook: 'Fairway' report on December jobs 
Dec. 8, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Better-than-expected payroll gains and hours worked point to a Fed hike and then a possible Santa Claus rally.
Weekly Update: Men are from Mars, women are from Venus and millennials are from ... 
Dec. 8, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Is that Santa I see? Could be, as market forces suggest a mid-December rally could be in the offing.
Q&A: Opportunities ahead for dividend investors 
Dec. 5, 2017 :: Linda Bakhshian
Continued growth, a gradual Fed and tax reform should all be supportive for dividend-paying companies.
Weekly Update: Boy, this melt-up could use a nice political headline 
Dec. 1, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
And it got it with news that Flynn is cooperating with the special probe. Still, the market appears giddy over prospects of tax reform.
Orlando's Outlook: Goldilocks revisited 
Dec. 1, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
On strong economic growth, we advise staying the course in the market.
2018 Outlook: Still riding the secular bull 
Dec. 1, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
As long as the bears keep whining while the fundamentals keep improving, this remarkable run should keep going.
Market Memo: Investors and the Industrial Revolution 3.0 
Nov. 29, 2017 :: Steven Chiavarone
The digital revolution is reshaping the economy and creating new opportunities much as past industrial revolutions did.
Orlando's Outlook: OPEC's perfect storm 
Nov. 22, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Forces are lining up to keep oil around $60/barrel.
Weekly Special: Happy Thanksgiving 
Nov. 22, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Linda shares some items on tax reform, the labor market, changing consumer tastes and millennials.
Weekly Update: The gentlemen are plentiful in Chi-Town 
Nov. 17, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
The active-passive debate heats up as correlations start to fall.
Orlando's Outlook: Revisiting immigration reform as we approach Thanksgiving 
Nov. 17, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
A solution to the immigration debate is possible as the goals of each side are not mutually exclusive.
Orlando's Outlook: Reshaping the Fed 
Nov. 10, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Trump has the opportunity to impact monetary policy, economic growth and market performance by filling open posts.
Weekly Update: What a time to be alive! 
Nov. 10, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
As we near the end of a very strong 2017, there are signs that investors are taking some chips off the table and calling it a year.
Orlando's Outlook: Jobs rebound, but entire report is mixed 
Nov. 3, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
There are enough positives in the jobs report to keep the Fed on track for another hike.
Weekly Update: Cold winds blowing 
Nov. 3, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Tax-reform messiness and lack of market breadth could spawn an equity sell-off. That's OK, because it would just serve to extend the up-cycle.
Weekly Update: It's important to know what you're paying for 
Oct. 27, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
The next few weeks should make clear what is and isn't possible on the tax-reform front. Meanwhile, the market carries on.
Orlando's Outlook: What hurricanes? 
Oct. 27, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
The prospect of fiscal policy reform continues to stir animal spirits among businesses and consumers.
Orlando's Outlook: Happy Anniversary 
Oct. 20, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
The market and economy today bear little-to-no resemblance to 1987.
Weekly Update: The devil didn't just go to Georgia 
Oct. 20, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
As resilient Texans rebuild, they are on the lookout for a big sell-off. It could come but there's still a lot to like about this market.
Market Memo: 30 years later, the 'Ghost of 1987' still haunts 
Oct. 16, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
The worst one-day decline in market history taught us many lessons; one of them is how today's environment is different.
Weekly Update: Blinded by the light 
Oct. 13, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
What if tax reform doesn't come to pass?
Orlando's Outlook: Retail redemption 
Oct. 13, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Retail sales rose in September, portending a strong holiday shopping season.
Orlando's Outlook: This too shall pass 
Oct. 6, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
We expect the labor market to bounce back in the fourth quarter.
Weekly Update: Greed 
Oct. 6, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Momentum suggests this rally may continue for awhile. What could go wrong?
Orlando's Outlook: Let's make a deal 
Sept. 29, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Trump’s opening tax salvo will likely be subject to the usual dealing in Washington.
Weekly Update: Did you flood? 
Sept. 29, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Many advisors seem to be expecting a melt-up even if their clients aren't.
Market Memo: Correction, such as it was, is over as market is set to move higher 
Sept. 29, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
Balance of risks leaning toward our S&P 3,000 target.
Weekly Update: Mother (!) Nature 
Sept. 22, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
She sure is wreaking havoc, but there's no sign of significant post-hurricane weakness.
Orlando's Outlook: Fed finally closes the loop 
Sept. 22, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
The Fed will unwind its balance sheet, but Yellen may not be there for much of it.
Market Memo: We're still bullish on small caps 
Sept. 19, 2017 :: Gregory Sterzel
Ducks are lining up for a potential small-cap rally in coming months.
Orlando's Outlook: Skunk at a picnic 
Sept. 15, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Retail sales in August were weak, but we haven't seen the entire picture yet.
Weekly Update: Crypto-nite 
Sept. 15, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Forget bitcoin. The real news is the bullish combination of improving global growth and the prospect for peppier fiscal stimulus.
Market Memo: Maybe Trump is proving a point 
Sept. 14, 2017 :: Jordan Stuart
As Washington fiddles, companies are hiring and investing more and the equity market is moving higher.
Weekly Update: 'Whatever it takes' equals bullish for stocks 
Sept. 8, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
All the rebuilding and recovery efforts, combined with an even more cautious Fed, are likely to prove highly stimulative and positive for equities.
Orlando's Outlook: Hurricanes pose third-quarter risk 
Sept. 8, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
GDP will take a big hit from Harvey and Irma, but the rebuilding should add to future growth.
Orlando's Outlook: Wonky August payrolls miss yet again 
Sept. 1, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Better to wait for the revisions to August's labor report to get the real story.
Weekly Update: Hello? Is anyone out there? 
Sept. 1, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Harvey throws wrinkle into outlook but could bring Congress together.
Orlando's Outlook: Yellen avoids Jackson Hole policy discussion 
Aug. 25, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
The Fed chair instead promotes maintaining post-crisis financial regulation, leaving the central bank's normalization timeline somewhat unclear.
Weekly Update: Totality 
Aug. 25, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Total eclipses tend to occur during periods of disruption.
Market Memo: Caught in a waiting game 
Aug. 22, 2017 :: Jordan Stuart
Instead of trying to time the market, investors may be better served by just focusing on good companies.
Weekly Update: It's simple math 
Aug. 18, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
The math favors a continuing secular bull despite all the geopolitical angst.
Orlando's Outlook: How can we fix health care? 
Aug. 15, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
With a bipartisan compromise to keep parts of ACA most people want, but paid in economically sound manner.
Market Memo: Summer storms won't derail the long cycle 
Aug. 11, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
A near-term pullback is likely, but a material threat to the secular bull market is not.
Orlando's Outlook: Is Fed's leadership transition a market risk? 
Aug. 8, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Who will be Fed Chair for the next four years and how might the market react?
Orlando's Outlook: Another solid jobs report 
Aug. 4, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
This week's slew of employment data affirms a strong labor market.
Weekly Update: I really must get a pedicure 
Aug. 4, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Earnings and fundamentals continue to trump—no pun intended—the D.C. chaos.
Orlando's Outlook: Solid second-quarter GDP keeps Fed on pace 
Jul. 28, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Q2 GDP more than doubled that of the first quarter.
Weekly Update: Jimmy, haven't you heard? Inflation is MIA 
Jul. 28, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
A pullback is possible as we enter a seasonally weak period but the longer view remains bullish.
Orlando's Outlook: Education the key to millennial financial success 
Jul. 21, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
New solutions are needed to address the growing student-debt levels in the U.S.
Weekly Update: 'It's not even the same category.' True that! 
Jul. 21, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
The markets would probably be just as happy if Republicans move on to tax reform and save health care for another day.
Market Memo: Waiting for Godot can be frustrating 
Jul. 19, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
Four key drivers should help lift this market further, but getting there will take patience.
Weekly Update: Who's your guru? 
Jul. 14, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Inflation reports and Yellen suggest rates are going to be very market friendly for quite a while.
Orlando's Outlook: Second wind? 
Jul. 13, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
We’re sticking to our guns that the S&P 500 will grind up toward our 2,500 year-end target.
Orlando's Outlook: Surprisingly strong June jobs report keeps Fed on pace 
Jul. 7, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
It’s clear the anemic March labor market report was a weather-impaired aberration.
Weekly Special: Dark thoughts for the beach ... 
Jul. 4, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
A compendium of research gathered by Linda Duessel doesn't include much to smile about.
Orlando's Outlook: Is millennial stress weighing on housing and autos? 
Jun. 30, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
From a sharing economy to high college debt, millennials just don't seem that interested in buying homes and cars.
Weekly Update: 'Hey carebot, how about another margarita?' 
Jun. 30, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
With the beach on her mind, Linda opines about a market that's been as gentle as a summer breeze.
Equity Outlook: Summer doldrums sign of hope, not complacency 
Jun. 27, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
Equity valuations and earnings remain market supportive, abetted by a solid economic backdrop and favorable government and monetary policies.
Weekly Update: Linder, things are messed up beyond all recognition 
Jun. 23, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Quiet is good as stocks continue to rise even as yields and inflation fall.
Orlando's Outlook: Immigration reform important to economic growth 
Jun. 23, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Immigration policies can be employment- and growth-driven while keeping the country safe.
Weekly Update: Like watching paint dry 
Jun. 15, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Neither inflation nor the roll-off of the Fed's balance sheet is going to move much in the near future.
Orlando's Outlook: Just say no 
Jun. 14, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Republicans must pass good legislation to counter the Democrats' 'resistance.'
Orlando's Outlook: Round trip 
Jun. 9, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
The latest Federated Macro Policy Committee observations of and positions on the U.S. economy.
Weekly Update: Drastic conditions call for drastic measures 
Jun. 9, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
For the first time since the U.S. election, economists concerned that the economy could wind up doing worse than expected under Trump.
Weekly Update: I can't predict the future 
Jun. 2, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Slow growth and low inflation are just fine for equities.
Orlando's Outlook: Mayday for May's jobs report 
Jun. 2, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
D.C. dysfunction and lack of people with the skills needed reasons combine for poor jobs report.
Market Memo: Between a (Permian) rock and a hard place—an OPEC post-mortem 
May 26, 2017 :: Lila Manassa Murphy
Although the latest OPEC meeting disappointed, there are still reasons to be constructive on the Energy sector.
Orlando's Outlook: OPEC extends production cuts 
May 26, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
More Americans will travel this Memorial Day weekend, and less oil will flow due to OPEC meeting.
Weekly Update: Surely, one of my 4 millennial children can spare a Jackson 
May 25, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Longer-term issues aren't yet getting in the way of this market.
Weekly Update: It's too bad about his personality 
May 19, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Worries that Trump's political problem may stall tax and other reforms are weighing on the markets.
Orlando's Outlook: Inflation stalls 
May 19, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
The Fed likely won't be distracted by the slowdown in inflation or Washington-related noise.
Market Memo: Buy—don't sell—in May 
May 12, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
After lagging this year, cyclical and financial stocks should be next in line to shine as rotational market is set for another run up
Weekly Update: The economy's in recession ... in Alaska 
May 12, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Alaskans aren't much worried about Trump but sure would like to see oil prices move up.
Orlando's Outlook: Retail sales bounce despite dinosaur department stores 
May 12, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Confident consumers should continue to spend, just differently than they have.
Weekly Update: A boogieman in the bushes? 
May 5, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
There's a fair amount of worry out there. That could be good for stocks.
Orlando's Outlook: Labor market redemption 
May 5, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
April's robust jobs report confirms that March's miss was an aberration.
Weekly Update: Tough act to follow 
Apr. 28, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Accelerating growth and tax relief would be icing on the cake for the equity market.
Orlando's Outlook: Another punk first-quarter GDP 
Apr. 28, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
U.S. GDP growth is (yet again) slow in the first quarter, leading us to (yet again) forecast a rebound.
Weekly Update: My periwinkle heels were killer this week 
Apr. 21, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Despite all the short-term noise, the longer-term is looking pretty good.
Orlando's Outlook: 100-day report card 
Apr. 21, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
The latest Federated Macro Policy Committee observations of and positions on the U.S. economy.
Market Memo: Hope on sale 
Apr. 13, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
As hope diminishes amid the political messiness, the equity-market bargains are mounting, we believe.
Weekly Update: On the road again 
Apr. 13, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
A South Florida visit found many still fearful and that may be good for equities.
Orlando's Outlook: Going nuclear 
Apr. 11, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Implications from the nomination of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court.
Orlando's Outlook: 'Hey, Stella!' 
Apr. 7, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Winter storm Stella did a number on the March payroll report; expect a snap back in April.
Weekly Update: It's all about earnings 
Apr. 7, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
There's a lot of noise, about Russia, missile strikes, the Fed, etc. But at the end of the day, what the market really cares about is earnings.
Weekly Update: Don't be a gambler, be an investor 
Mar. 31, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Beyond all the noise, there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about stocks for the longer term.
Orlando's Outlook: Core inflation grinding higher 
Mar. 31, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Growing inflation should prompt the Fed to continue to hike interest rates, driving both bond yields and stock prices higher over time.
Market Memo: Small caps may have more room to run 
Mar. 30, 2017 :: Gregory Sterzel
Trump administration proposals, if carried out, could prove very beneficial for smaller companies.
Weekly Update: Fantastic tax cuts would be so much fun! 
Mar. 24, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
While the media gets caught up in repeal-and-reform debate, the White House and the market keep their eyes on a bigger prize.
Orlando's Outlook: Negative momentum in Washington 
Mar. 24, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Financial markets hate uncertainty, so continued congressional intransigence could introduce volatility.
In Short: Federated adds to equity overweight 
Mar. 22, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Asset-allocation committee views pullback as opportunity for long-term stock investors.
Weekly Update: Nothingburger 
Mar. 17, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
The trend for stocks remains up and there's not a lot getting in the way.
Secular Bull Update: Where next? 
Mar. 15, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
This secular bull could get us to 3,000, possibly in 2019.
Orlando's Outlook: Beware the Ides of March 
Mar. 14, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
The latest Federated Macro Policy Committee observations of and positions on the U.S. economy.
Orlando's Outlook: Another solid jobs report 
Mar. 10, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
In addition to headline gains in nonfarm payrolls, the report had strong details.
Weekly Update: A beautiful long and winding road 
Mar. 10, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Worries may arise over a looming Fed hike and Obamacare repeal-and-replace battles, but the longer view is still a good one.
Weekly Update: All over the place in N.C. 
Mar. 3, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
The market continues to touch new highs even as it enters a seasonally strong period. Can it keep going?
Weekly Update: Trump, Trump, Trump ad nauseam 
Feb. 24, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Market is starting to want specifics, not rhetoric, on policy moves.
Orlando's Outlook: Striking the right balance on immigration 
Feb. 24, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
We can improve GDP growth and protect the U.S. from terrorism without sacrificing healthy levels of safe immigration.
Weekly Update: It's annual review time! 
Feb. 17, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Inflation is finding its way into the market vernacular, but it's not yet causing trouble.
Orlando's Outlook: Has the post-election consumer turned the corner? 
Feb. 17, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Just when it seemed the Grinch had won, data shows Christmas retail sales were the best in five years.
Market Memo: Firmly in the 'buy the dips' mode 
Feb. 13, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
A pullback may be in the offing but that's just a chance to add to equities in a market that has strong upside underpinnings.
Weekly Update: Winter break 
Feb. 10, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
The market likes what it's hearing but at some point, the rubber is going to need to meet the road.
Market Memo: 'Grand bargain' revisited—the good, the bad and the ugly 
Feb. 10, 2017 :: Lila Manassa Murphy
OPEC production cuts are working, but a supply-demand imbalance may be building as U.S. oil producers ramp up activity
Orlando's Outlook: Positive 'January Barometer' raises likelihood of good year 
Feb. 8, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Historically, as the first five trading days of January go, so goes the month; and as the month goes, so goes the year.
Orlando's Outlook: January jobs report trumps consensus 
Feb. 3, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Big jump in nonfarm payrolls and rising labor force participation are welcome changes, but wage growth unexpectedly slows.
Weekly Update: Nothing going on here, so ... 
Feb. 3, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
In Vancouver, they're worried about Trump. But in the U.S., the equity market still seems encouraged.
Weekly Update: In the Great Northwest, trying to get their arms around this new administration 
Jan. 27, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Trump bump is benefitting markets but certain investors don't seem to care much.
Orlando's Outlook: Huge trade drag hurts Q4 GDP 
Jan. 27, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
The problem was the largest drag from trade in six years, in part due to the unwinding of the unsustainable surge in soybean exports in Q3.
Orlando's Outlook: Buy the election, sell the inauguration? 
Jan. 20, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Recent sideways market likely reflects investors' desires to see what Trump and GOP Congress actually do over the few months.
Weekly Update: Anticipating President (The?) Donald in La La Land 
Jan. 20, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
We're about to find out if Trump can work with Congress to strengthen and broaden the reach of America's economy.
Market Memo: So far, OPEC's 'grand bargain' is grand ... for U.S. shale 
Jan. 19, 2017 :: Lila Manassa Murphy
As planned production cuts support higher prices, U.S. shale producers are ramping up rig activity.
Q&A: Market set to climb a 'Wall of Hope' this year and next 
Jan. 18, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
The reasons for Federated's 2,500 target on the S&P 500 by year-end 2018 are fundamental and structural.
Weekly Update: Will trickle-down economics work? 
Jan. 13, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
While the market digests the work ahead for change, its more favorable outlook still centers on the ability of Trump's agenda to perk up growth.
Orlando's Outlook: What a difference a year makes 
Jan. 13, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
The January Barometer is predicting good conditions for the economy and equities in 2017.
Weekly Update: Where are we in the business cycle? 
Jan. 6, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Expected Trumponomics stimulus will likely keep a late-stage business cycle going.
Orlando's Outlook: December jobs report ends 2016 on sour note 
Jan. 6, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Job growth decelerates as the economy closes out 2016.
Orlando's Outlook: Will surge in confidence boost consumer spending? 
Dec. 27, 2016 :: Philip Orlando
Consumer confidence readings are high, but will holiday spending follow suit?
2017 Outlook: Let's take it easy 
Dec. 27, 2016 :: Linda Duessel
As the calendar turns, a market euphoric over a pro-growth Trump may shift its focus to the frustrations of getting things done.
2017 Outlook: Wall of Hope 
Dec. 16, 2016 :: Stephen Auth
The 'Wall of Worry' is giving way to a 'Wall of Hope' on expectations for transformational changes under Trump.
Weekly Update: Santa does exist! 
Dec. 16, 2016 :: Linda Duessel
We'll worry about next year later. Right now, it may not be worth fighting the tape.
Orlando's Outlook: It's all about 'Trumponomics' 
Dec. 16, 2016 :: Philip Orlando
Federated boosts GDP growth prospects on Trump initiatives.
Market Memo: Recent trip to Europe confirms 'cloudy with a chance of sun' forecast 
Jun. 14, 2016 :: Stephen Auth
Observations while in Europe reaffirm Federated's cautious stance.
Orlando's Outlook: Strong December jobs report doesn't matter for markets 
Jan. 8, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
The labor market was much stronger than expected in December, which should have quelled some of the China-driven angst that has roiled global markets thus far in 2016.

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