Market Views - Equity

Our experienced, specialized investment professionals have delivered disciplined equity portfolios for more than thirty years. Choose an article to read our views of today’s economy and global stock markets.

Orlando's Outlook: Manufacturing recession bottoming 
May 27, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
We’re not completely out of the woods but manufacturing conditions have certainly become less bad.
Weekly Update: Clarity in the sunshine 
May 25, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
A lot of uncertainty is hanging over the market, but that should clear up in the next few months.
Market Memo: Cloudy with a chance of rain (or sun) 
May 24, 2016 :: Stephen F Auth
As it awaits clearer skies on cloudy issues, Federated continues to hold off on adding to equities in its stock-bond portfolio model.
Weekly Update: I have a disappointed client! 
May 20, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
It's not what you think; I couldn't find any shoes worth buying in San Francisco. As for the market, sideways seems to be the fashion for now.
Orlando's Outlook: Strong April retail sales mask limp 'Mapril' 
May 20, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
The consumer is not dead, just different.
Orlando's Outlook: Weak fundamentals Trump investor optimism 
May 13, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
The S&P 500 could fall 5-8% over the next months with the potential for more if fundamentals continue to deteriorate.
Weekly Update: Maybe it's better that we don't get clarity 
May 13, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
The market continues to struggle with disparate data on the economy. Maybe that's not such a bad thing.
Orlando's Outlook: April whiff for jobs report 
May 6, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
The weak jobs report is the final nail in the proverbial coffin for a Fed hike in June.
Weekly Update: 'Who run the world' 
May 6, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
There's no clear sign on whether equities have more upside or downside from here, suggesting the tight trading range of the past 2 years may continue.
Orlando's Outlook: Ripple effect 
Apr. 29, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
We don’t have a brutal winter on which to pin the blame for this year's poor first-quarter growth.
Weekly Update: My Pittsburgh masseur is going to build a tiny house 
Apr. 29, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
Worries over negative rates, slow growth and an historically challenging seasonal period could knock the rally off its tracks.
Orlando's Outlook: Doha bust doesn't spell oil's doom 
Apr. 22, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
Cutbacks in U.S. and other non-OPEC production, combined with rising demand, likely means the floor has been set on oil and prices should hover in the $40 to $60 range.
Weekly Update: Horror is a relative term, I guess 
Apr. 22, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
These are interesting times, with arguments both pro- and anti-equities making sense. In the end, maybe we keep trading in the relatively narrow range where we've been for awhile.
Market Memo: The yellow flag's still out on stocks 
Apr. 22, 2016 :: Stephen F Auth
The impressive late-winter/early-spring equity rally aside, several outstanding issues could prompt a summer swoon. As a result, we recommend avoiding aggressive buying at this time.
Orlando's Outlook: Economic inflection point 
Apr. 15, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
Federated’s latest assessment of the U.S. economy.
Weekly Update: On the one hand, on the other... 
Apr. 15, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
There are mixed signals on whether the recent rally has legs or if perhaps another down-leg lies ahead.
Weekly Update: High winds 
Apr. 8, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
Much like the winds this week, the market has been choppy, with no clear sense of when or whether the ride will turn smoother.
Orlando's Outlook: One for the ages 
Apr. 8, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
Get set for another volatile quarter in equities.
Orlando's Outlook: Solid March jobs report is no April Fools' Day joke 
Apr. 1, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
The labor market is healthy, but not too hot to tempt the Fed to hike rates in April.
Weekly Update: Uncertainty = Q4?! 
Apr. 1, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
Yellen cages the hawks and indicates the Fed stands ready to do more stimulus if need be. Not surprisingly, the market rallies as its love of easy money trumped worries over uncertainty.
Weekly Update: How much would you pay to sleep well at night? 
Mar. 24, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
There are a lot of reasons to be encouraged by the market, and a lot of reasons to be concerned.
Orlando's Outlook: Will SCOTUS uncertainty add to market angst? 
Mar. 24, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
The battle between Obama and the Senate over the successor to Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has raised the stakes this election year.
Market Memo: Reiterating our cautious stance 
Mar. 22, 2016 :: Stephen F Auth
The arrival of spring is a good time to refresh our outlook.
Orlando's Outlook: Fed moves toward the market 
Mar. 18, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
By suggesting it would hike rates two times this year instead of four, the Fed met market expectations.
Weekly Update: March Madness 
Mar. 18, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
On the road in basketball-mad North Carolina.
Weekly Update: I've got a case of popcorn for Tuesday night 
Mar. 11, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
Trump's march toward the nomination appears inevitable, with Tuesday's winner-take-all states the last establishment bulwark.
Orlando's Outlook: Not out of the woods yet 
Mar. 11, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
Federated tweaks its GDP forecasts for 2016.
Weekly Update: #NeverTrump = President Clinton? 
Mar. 4, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
As Trump's rise to the GOP nomination seems inevitable, the markets are left to ponder the impact.
Orlando's Outlook: Solid rebound for February jobs report 
Mar. 4, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
Jobs report solid, but not enough to push a Fed hike.
Orlando's Outlook: Devil in the details 
Feb. 26, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
Drilling deeper into the seemingly good Q4 GDP revision reveals less to be excited about.
Weekly Update: What trumps Trump? 
Feb. 26, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
How China gets out of its current morass may go a long way toward determining how this market behaves in coming months.
Weekly Update: Crickets are quiet until they gather and let their hair down 
Feb. 19, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
The rally has been nice but the undercurrents suggest some turbulence ahead.
Orlando's Outlook: Blue Christmas 
Feb. 19, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
Perhaps today's consumers are different, choosing to spend money on things they really need.
Market Memo: Lowering year-end target; cautious stance reiterated 
Feb. 19, 2016 :: Stephen F Auth
Federated's asset-allocation committee shifts to an equity underweight in its model portfolio on concerns conditions will get worse before they get better.
Orlando's Outlook: Another bad January 
Feb. 12, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
The 'January Barometer' has forecasting prowess, but fundamentals still matter most of all.
Weekly Update: Main Street is calmer than Wall Street for a change 
Feb. 12, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
As the risk-off trade continues, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy look pretty good, particularly for households.
Orlando's Outlook: Jobs report has weak headline, better internals 
Feb. 5, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
While the payroll miss might keep the Fed on hold, the labor report is cause for optimism.
Weekly Update: Technical recession watch 
Feb. 5, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
Mixed signals fail to ease the uncertainty that's helping feed this market slump.
Market Memo: Weakening environment favors defense 
Feb. 2, 2016 :: Stephen F Auth
Federated's asset-allocation committee lowers stock-bond model to neutral on belief near-term factors more likely to send equities down than up.
Orlando's Outlook: Weak fourth-quarter GDP puts Fed on hold 
Jan. 29, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
While the Fed did not explicitly state a March hike is off the table, the Commerce Dept. effectively did.
Weekly Update: Black gold, Texas tea? Not for awhile ... 
Jan. 29, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
Until oil settles, it's going to be volatile.
Orlando's Outlook: Economic deceleration 
Jan. 22, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
While we are not forecasting a recession, we acknowledge the U.S. has clearly hit an economic soft patch.
Weekly Update: 'Have we seen the low in oil? Have we seen the low in stocks?' 
Jan. 22, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
Finding bottoms can be a messy process, but absent a yet-unknown financial crisis, there's reason to think a buy-the-dips strategy would be a good one in this current environment.
Orlando's Outlook: Brutal start to 2016 
Jan. 15, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
Markets are ugly, but FOMC statement and flash GDP report at month-end might provide relief.
Weekly Update: This stock market, it's a confidence game 
Jan. 15, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
It's hard to fight the tape when the mood is so sour. But behind this big Wall of Worry are some pretty solid economic fundamentals.
Orlando's Outlook: Strong December jobs report doesn't matter for markets 
Jan. 8, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
The labor market was much stronger than expected in December, which should have quelled some of the China-driven angst that has roiled global markets thus far in 2016.
Equity Outlook: Year-end S&P target reset at 2,150 on China, oil, volatility; longer 2,500 target intact 
Jan. 8, 2016 :: Stephen F Auth
Uncertainty and angst over oil, China policy missteps and earnings are feeding the selling frenzy for now, but the fundamentals are better than the headlines, and eventually they should win out.
2016 Outlook Special: Whither the consumer, whither the economy 
Jan. 8, 2016 :: Linda A Duessel
All the worries over oil and China seem to be overlooking one critical factor: consumers remain the dominant force in the economy, and all signs suggest they're ready to spend in the New Year.
2016 Outlook: Do you fear the turtle? 
Dec. 30, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
There are reasons to be concerned about 2016 but if the consumer comes through and oil prices indeed have bottomed, it should be a good year.
Orlando's Outlook: Glass half full in 2016 
Dec. 28, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
Federated has an out-of-consensus bullish view for 2016.
Orlando's Outlook: Finally 
Dec. 18, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
Our latest projections of GDP following the Fed hike.
Weekly Update: I sure hope Santa comes 
Dec. 18, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
Time is running short for the typical year-end Santa Claus rally but broader metrics suggest risk-on assets are set to move up in coming weeks.
Orlando's Outlook: Black November 
Dec. 11, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
Online sales, particularly mobile, are surging at a double-digit pace, helping to offset sluggish mall traffic.
Weekly Update: A lot is riding on Santa 
Dec. 11, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
The next few weeks may determine if we get the growth we need to justify our bullish outlook on 2016.
2016 Outlook: Expecting a steady and profitable year ahead for equity investors 
Dec. 4, 2015 :: Stephen F Auth
2015's seesaw should give way to a friendlier 2016 equity market on higher earnings, higher multiples, solid growth and stabilizing oil
Orlando's Outlook: Ready for liftoff 
Dec. 4, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
We reiterate our forecast that the Fed will hike rates in December and spark a powerful year-end rally in stocks.
Weekly Update: I want a smoother ride 
Dec. 4, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
Santa has some work to do if December is to match historical trends as the best month of the year for equity returns.
Orlando's Outlook: Positive inflection point for manufacturing 
Nov. 20, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
We expect that manufacturing trends in 2016 will improve off this year’s disappointingly low base.
Weekly Update: Happy Thanksgiving; I'll see you in two weeks 
Nov. 20, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
The troubling divide between the haves and have-nots is casting a pall on a market that nonetheless is grinding seasonally higher.
Orlando's Outlook: Janet and the Dominos 
Nov. 13, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
We think the Fed will be singing a new tune in December.
Weekly Update: 'I'm in the business for 30 years, and Christmas always comes' 
Nov. 13, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
This pullback may linger and follows an overbought October; but Santa Claus should still come as the macro environment remans supportive
Weekly Update: Why is my husband looking at me that way? 
Nov. 6, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
As investors keep worrying, stocks keep rising on supportive data and trends
Orlando's Outlook: Labor market back on track 
Nov. 6, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
Strong jobs report justifies our continued belief that the Fed will finally hike rates in December.
Market Memo: Don't fade this rally 
Nov. 2, 2015 :: Stephen F Auth
Don't let the bears get in the way of a slew of macro and market data that are pointing to a continuing, and strengthening, rally
Orlando's Outlook: It's all about inventory 
Oct. 30, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
Bloated inventory levels finally came home to roost, but the Fed may look past it, keeping liftoff on the table.
Weekly Update: Is it time to buy those Mason jars yet? 
Oct. 30, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
With seasonality and earnings favoring a continued equity rally and no recession in sight, there's no need yet to hoard cash
Orlando's Outlook: Tale of two economies 
Oct. 23, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
We’re sticking to our guns, with an out-of-consensus year-end target of 2,200.
Weekly Update: An 'All Clear' for the economy from the LSI 
Oct. 23, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
With recession odds low, central banks loosening and earnings OK, a melt-up could be on the way
Orlando's Outlook: Are consumers cashing in their energy dividend yet? 
Oct. 16, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
We continue to believe that the growing energy dividend will fuel a solid holiday season.
Weekly Update: Wisconsinites are humble 
Oct. 16, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
They also are worried, which may be good for a market that's sending mixed messages
Market Update: Year-end rally scenario still on track 
Oct. 12, 2015 :: Stephen F Auth
Fed, economy, China, biotech and cyclicals sending positive market vibes. Muted reaction to bank earnings would be icing on the cake.
Orlando's Outlook: Double bottom—Is the equity market retest complete? 
Oct. 9, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
A number of factors could spark a 10% year-end S&P rally to our 2,200 target price.
Weekly Update: 47% of all jobs will be done by robots by 2030 
Oct. 9, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
Market momentum could be signaling the year-end rally looms; S&P 500 at 2,040-2,060 will test
Orlando's Outlook: Dreadful September jobs report ices Fed 
Oct. 2, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
The Fed hike has probably moved to March 2016 at the earliest.
Weekly Update: In Texas, $70 is the new $100 
Oct. 2, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
Recession worries are being voiced more often but trends suggest it's too early and a market rally into year-end is more likely
Orlando's Outlook: The manufacturing fly in the domestic ointment 
Sept. 25, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
U.S. manufacturing remains weak, despite higher second-quarter GDP.
Weekly Update: 'Sell everything!' 
Sept. 25, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
Bearishness may be understandable but it also is acting to underpin this bull market
Market Memo: Setting up for a year-end rally—but not quite yet 
Sept. 24, 2015 :: Stephen F Auth
The market needs to be convinced the news is becoming less worse out of China. When it does, we expect this slumbering secular bull to wake up
Orlando's Outlook: Third mandate for the Fed? 
Sept. 18, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
Did the recent FOMC meeting reveal the Fed to be cautious and Chinese data dependent?
Weekly Update: 'You think we'll have a recession five years from now? That soon?' 
Sept. 18, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
The Fed's inaction rattles the market but fundamentals still suggest a rally lies ahead
Orlando's Outlook: Inventory spike pares second-half GDP outlook 
Sept. 11, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
Growth should still be good and supportive of a year-end rally in stocks
Weekly Update: I think it was the red dress 
Sept. 11, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
Seasonal and technical factors suggest a little more volatility before a possible strong rally
Orlando's Outlook: August payroll quirk won't derail Fed 
Sept. 4, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
August is typically the quirkiest payroll month of the year with readings usually missing consensus by 50,000 jobs.
Orlando's Outlook: Will China angst delay Fed liftoff? 
Aug. 28, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
It's probably a coin flip as improving domestic data battle worries over China, global deflation
Weekly Update: What the heck? 
Aug. 28, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
History suggests the sell-off will test its recent lows before rallying strongly into year-end.
Market Memo: The world isn't ending 
Aug. 25, 2015 :: Stephen F Auth
The drama over China is creating opportunities for long-term investors willing to wait out the storm
Weekly Update: Everybody's talking correction; something else stumped me 
Aug. 21, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
A mixed week of data and tepid FOMC minutes roil the markets, while oil and Donald Trump are on investors' minds.
Orlando's Outlook: Possible 'win-win-win' in Washington 
Aug. 18, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
Comprehensive corporate tax reform could be the answer to many problems now facing the U.S.
Weekly Update: The Big Easy 
Aug. 14, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
New Orleans is laid back, but the markets are fretting about China's economy and currency devaluation.
Market Memo: China's storm clouds have a silver lining 
Aug. 13, 2015 :: Stephen F. Auth
As negative as recent headlines about China appear, we expect investors to begin refocusing on strong U.S. fundamentals driving markets higher by fall.
Orlando's Outlook: Should we nuke the Iranian nuclear deal? 
Aug. 11, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
It appears the U.S. made all of the concessions, and the resultant glut of oil could hurt energy, industrial and materials companies.
Orlando's Outlook: July jobs data keeps Fed on target for September 
Aug. 7, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
The report gives us greater confidence that a cautious, data-dependent Fed will hike rates at its next meeting.
Vacation Special: Did you ever wonder why turtles walk so slowly? 
Aug. 6, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
A rising-rate environment could benefit income-oriented strategies
Market Memo: Still bullish and still expecting strong second half 
Aug. 3, 2015 :: Stephen F. Auth
Despite noise over China and oil, the economy looks poised to accelerate and to potentially drive the S&P 500 to our year-end 2,350 target
Orlando's Outlook: Second-quarter GDP trends higher 
Jul. 30, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Benchmark revisions dating back to 2012 address some of the seasonal issues impacting Q1 GDP
Weekly Update: A turtle comes to mind 
Jul. 30, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
The market seems to be sending mixed signals but the longer-term bullish trend remains intact
Orlando's Outlook: GDP ready to accelerate 
Jul. 24, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Better second-half economic data is starting to materialize.
Weekly Update: Tobacco Road 
Jul. 24, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
As the Wall of Worry grows and Fed tightening nears, individual investors seem to be avoiding stocks. This could be good for the bull.
Orlando's Outlook: Second-half rally has begun 
Jul. 17, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
It appears investors have begun to discount stronger economic fundamentals in this year’s second half.
Weekly Update: We won't be range-bound forever 
Jul. 17, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Seasonal factors could see a near-term pullback but the longer term is shaping up nicely
Orlando's Outlook: Supreme's ACA ruling raises more questions than it answers 
Jul. 10, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
A look at the Afordable Care Act now that the Supreme Court has affirmed it.
Weekly Update: If China avoids a hard landing, we're good 
Jul. 10, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
China, Greece and computer glitches add to a beautiful Wall of Worry
Orlando's Outlook: June labor market disappoints 
Jul. 2, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Expecting fireworks in today's labor report, we got a dud.
Vacation Special: Whither consumer spending—boomers and millennials collide 
Jun. 30, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Whether the economy takes off comes down to whether consumers start spending more
Market Memo: Greece crisis presents opportunity 
Jun. 29, 2015 :: Stephen F. Auth
With contagion risks low and U.S. economy accelerating, buy-on-dips view remains in place
Orlando's Outlook: Flattening margins won't derail Q2 earnings 
Jun. 26, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Federated thinks the Q2 reporting season will be much like every other quarter since the recession.
Weekly Update: In an aloha state of mind 
Jun. 26, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Despite a sideways summer, stocks still seem to be shaping up for a second-half run
Market Memo: Setting up for a strong second half 
Jun. 19, 2015 :: Stephen F. Auth
Uncertainty, never a friend of markets, is waning on nearly all fronts, setting the table for a strong second half
Orlando's Outlook: Inflection point 
Jun. 19, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Once investors successfully wade through the summer’s headline risks, we believe stocks should rip 10% or more to year end.
Weekly Update: Say boss, can I have a raise? 
Jun. 18, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Wages finally appear to be rising and, along with a dovish Fed, this could be very bullish for stocks
Orlando's Outlook: Manufacturing turnaround 
Jun. 12, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Several key metrics, such as auto sales, manufacturing ISM and the trade balance have begun to firm.
Weekly Update: Mile High worriers 
Jun. 12, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Recent data, particularly on the jobs and consumer front, are pointing to a solid second half
Orlando's Outlook: Labor market blooms in May 
Jun. 5, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Latest BLS report shows labor market is solidly back on track.
Weekly Update: What's your favorite ice cream cone? 
Jun. 5, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Lingering questions over record margins may be behind this sideways market

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