Market Views - Equity

Our experienced, specialized investment professionals have delivered disciplined equity portfolios for more than thirty years. Choose an article to read our views of today’s economy and global stock markets.

Orlando's Outlook: Positive inflection point for manufacturing 
Nov. 20, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
We expect that manufacturing trends in 2016 will improve off this year’s disappointingly low base.
Weekly Update: Happy Thanksgiving; I'll see you in two weeks 
Nov. 20, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
The troubling divide between the haves and have-nots is casting a pall on a market that nonetheless is grinding seasonally higher.
Orlando's Outlook: Janet and the Dominos 
Nov. 13, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
We think the Fed will be singing a new tune in December.
Weekly Update: 'I'm in the business for 30 years, and Christmas always comes' 
Nov. 13, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
This pullback may linger and follows an overbought October; but Santa Claus should still come as the macro environment remans supportive
Weekly Update: Why is my husband looking at me that way? 
Nov. 6, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
As investors keep worrying, stocks keep rising on supportive data and trends
Orlando's Outlook: Labor market back on track 
Nov. 6, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
Strong jobs report justifies our continued belief that the Fed will finally hike rates in December.
Market Memo: Don't fade this rally 
Nov. 2, 2015 :: Stephen F Auth
Don't let the bears get in the way of a slew of macro and market data that are pointing to a continuing, and strengthening, rally
Orlando's Outlook: It's all about inventory 
Oct. 30, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
Bloated inventory levels finally came home to roost, but the Fed may look past it, keeping liftoff on the table.
Weekly Update: Is it time to buy those Mason jars yet? 
Oct. 30, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
With seasonality and earnings favoring a continued equity rally and no recession in sight, there's no need yet to hoard cash
Orlando's Outlook: Tale of two economies 
Oct. 23, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
We’re sticking to our guns, with an out-of-consensus year-end target of 2,200.
Weekly Update: An 'All Clear' for the economy from the LSI 
Oct. 23, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
With recession odds low, central banks loosening and earnings OK, a melt-up could be on the way
Orlando's Outlook: Are consumers cashing in their energy dividend yet? 
Oct. 16, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
We continue to believe that the growing energy dividend will fuel a solid holiday season.
Weekly Update: Wisconsinites are humble 
Oct. 16, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
They also are worried, which may be good for a market that's sending mixed messages
Market Update: Year-end rally scenario still on track 
Oct. 12, 2015 :: Stephen F Auth
Fed, economy, China, biotech and cyclicals sending positive market vibes. Muted reaction to bank earnings would be icing on the cake.
Orlando's Outlook: Double bottom—Is the equity market retest complete? 
Oct. 9, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
A number of factors could spark a 10% year-end S&P rally to our 2,200 target price.
Weekly Update: 47% of all jobs will be done by robots by 2030 
Oct. 9, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
Market momentum could be signaling the year-end rally looms; S&P 500 at 2,040-2,060 will test
Orlando's Outlook: Dreadful September jobs report ices Fed 
Oct. 2, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
The Fed hike has probably moved to March 2016 at the earliest.
Weekly Update: In Texas, $70 is the new $100 
Oct. 2, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
Recession worries are being voiced more often but trends suggest it's too early and a market rally into year-end is more likely
Orlando's Outlook: The manufacturing fly in the domestic ointment 
Sept. 25, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
U.S. manufacturing remains weak, despite higher second-quarter GDP.
Weekly Update: 'Sell everything!' 
Sept. 25, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
Bearishness may be understandable but it also is acting to underpin this bull market
Market Memo: Setting up for a year-end rally—but not quite yet 
Sept. 24, 2015 :: Stephen F Auth
The market needs to be convinced the news is becoming less worse out of China. When it does, we expect this slumbering secular bull to wake up
Orlando's Outlook: Third mandate for the Fed? 
Sept. 18, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
Did the recent FOMC meeting reveal the Fed to be cautious and Chinese data dependent?
Weekly Update: 'You think we'll have a recession five years from now? That soon?' 
Sept. 18, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
The Fed's inaction rattles the market but fundamentals still suggest a rally lies ahead
Orlando's Outlook: Inventory spike pares second-half GDP outlook 
Sept. 11, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
Growth should still be good and supportive of a year-end rally in stocks
Weekly Update: I think it was the red dress 
Sept. 11, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
Seasonal and technical factors suggest a little more volatility before a possible strong rally
Orlando's Outlook: August payroll quirk won't derail Fed 
Sept. 4, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
August is typically the quirkiest payroll month of the year with readings usually missing consensus by 50,000 jobs.
Orlando's Outlook: Will China angst delay Fed liftoff? 
Aug. 28, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
It's probably a coin flip as improving domestic data battle worries over China, global deflation
Weekly Update: What the heck? 
Aug. 28, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
History suggests the sell-off will test its recent lows before rallying strongly into year-end.
Market Memo: The world isn't ending 
Aug. 25, 2015 :: Stephen F Auth
The drama over China is creating opportunities for long-term investors willing to wait out the storm
Weekly Update: Everybody's talking correction; something else stumped me 
Aug. 21, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
A mixed week of data and tepid FOMC minutes roil the markets, while oil and Donald Trump are on investors' minds.
Orlando's Outlook: Possible 'win-win-win' in Washington 
Aug. 18, 2015 :: Philip J Orlando
Comprehensive corporate tax reform could be the answer to many problems now facing the U.S.
Weekly Update: The Big Easy 
Aug. 14, 2015 :: Linda A Duessel
New Orleans is laid back, but the markets are fretting about China's economy and currency devaluation.
Market Memo: China's storm clouds have a silver lining 
Aug. 13, 2015 :: Stephen F. Auth
As negative as recent headlines about China appear, we expect investors to begin refocusing on strong U.S. fundamentals driving markets higher by fall.
Orlando's Outlook: Should we nuke the Iranian nuclear deal? 
Aug. 11, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
It appears the U.S. made all of the concessions, and the resultant glut of oil could hurt energy, industrial and materials companies.
Orlando's Outlook: July jobs data keeps Fed on target for September 
Aug. 7, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
The report gives us greater confidence that a cautious, data-dependent Fed will hike rates at its next meeting.
Vacation Special: Did you ever wonder why turtles walk so slowly? 
Aug. 6, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
A rising-rate environment could benefit income-oriented strategies
Market Memo: Still bullish and still expecting strong second half 
Aug. 3, 2015 :: Stephen F. Auth
Despite noise over China and oil, the economy looks poised to accelerate and to potentially drive the S&P 500 to our year-end 2,350 target
Orlando's Outlook: Second-quarter GDP trends higher 
Jul. 30, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Benchmark revisions dating back to 2012 address some of the seasonal issues impacting Q1 GDP
Weekly Update: A turtle comes to mind 
Jul. 30, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
The market seems to be sending mixed signals but the longer-term bullish trend remains intact
Orlando's Outlook: GDP ready to accelerate 
Jul. 24, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Better second-half economic data is starting to materialize.
Weekly Update: Tobacco Road 
Jul. 24, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
As the Wall of Worry grows and Fed tightening nears, individual investors seem to be avoiding stocks. This could be good for the bull.
Orlando's Outlook: Second-half rally has begun 
Jul. 17, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
It appears investors have begun to discount stronger economic fundamentals in this year’s second half.
Weekly Update: We won't be range-bound forever 
Jul. 17, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Seasonal factors could see a near-term pullback but the longer term is shaping up nicely
Orlando's Outlook: Supreme's ACA ruling raises more questions than it answers 
Jul. 10, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
A look at the Afordable Care Act now that the Supreme Court has affirmed it.
Weekly Update: If China avoids a hard landing, we're good 
Jul. 10, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
China, Greece and computer glitches add to a beautiful Wall of Worry
Orlando's Outlook: June labor market disappoints 
Jul. 2, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Expecting fireworks in today's labor report, we got a dud.
Vacation Special: Whither consumer spending—boomers and millennials collide 
Jun. 30, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Whether the economy takes off comes down to whether consumers start spending more
Market Memo: Greece crisis presents opportunity 
Jun. 29, 2015 :: Stephen F. Auth
With contagion risks low and U.S. economy accelerating, buy-on-dips view remains in place
Orlando's Outlook: Flattening margins won't derail Q2 earnings 
Jun. 26, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Federated thinks the Q2 reporting season will be much like every other quarter since the recession.
Weekly Update: In an aloha state of mind 
Jun. 26, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Despite a sideways summer, stocks still seem to be shaping up for a second-half run
Market Memo: Setting up for a strong second half 
Jun. 19, 2015 :: Stephen F. Auth
Uncertainty, never a friend of markets, is waning on nearly all fronts, setting the table for a strong second half
Orlando's Outlook: Inflection point 
Jun. 19, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Once investors successfully wade through the summer’s headline risks, we believe stocks should rip 10% or more to year end.
Weekly Update: Say boss, can I have a raise? 
Jun. 18, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Wages finally appear to be rising and, along with a dovish Fed, this could be very bullish for stocks
Orlando's Outlook: Manufacturing turnaround 
Jun. 12, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Several key metrics, such as auto sales, manufacturing ISM and the trade balance have begun to firm.
Weekly Update: Mile High worriers 
Jun. 12, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Recent data, particularly on the jobs and consumer front, are pointing to a solid second half
Orlando's Outlook: Labor market blooms in May 
Jun. 5, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Latest BLS report shows labor market is solidly back on track.
Weekly Update: What's your favorite ice cream cone? 
Jun. 5, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Lingering questions over record margins may be behind this sideways market
Orlando's Outlook: Energy roller coaster 
May 29, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Still twisting and turning, energy prices boosted consumer-related travel purchases in May.
Weekly Update: Vacay's on my mind 
May 29, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
There may be some near-term weakness but there are many reasons to be back-half bullish
Market Memo: Tuesday's good news really was good news 
May 27, 2015 :: Stephen F. Auth
Signs of spring rebound suggest better back-half for stocks as Fed's likely to remain very cautious
Weekly Update: It's my kind of town! 
May 22, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
We'll soon learn if the softness of late is transitory and if housing's ready to assume a leadership role
Orlando's Outlook: Tepid 'Mapril' sales point to cautious consumer 
May 19, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
We continue to expect consumers will shake off lethargy with strong housing and auto trends in May and June.
Orlando's Outlook: 'Irrational exuberance' II 
May 15, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Yellen should not dabble in stock valuations.
Weekly Update: Why is that turtle walking so slowly? 
May 15, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Slower for longer, lower for longer and investor skepticism make for a beautiful Wall of Worry
Market Memo: Buy in May and go away 
May 8, 2015 :: Stephen F. Auth
We believe the market is in the process of lifting off from this see-saw period
Orlando's Outlook: Never mind 
May 8, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
The labor market is back on track after a one-month aberration
Weekly Update: I haven't a clue where oil is going 
May 7, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
But it's not likely to reach last summer's highs anytime soon and that's good for stocks and economy
Orlando's Outlook: Investors look through poor first quarter 
May 1, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Despite pessimism about growth, we believe that many of these issues are transitory and it will rebound.
Weekly Update: 'Oil at $85 and it's free!*' 
May 1, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Where are oil prices headed? Even the experts aren't sure
Orlando's Outlook: Déjà vu first-quarter GDP 
Apr. 30, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
We expect the aberrant first quarter will be low point for growth in 2015.
Weekly Update: Go forth with alacrity 
Apr. 24, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Early earnings and an anticipated spring bounce are providing a tailwind for the market
Orlando's Outlook: Consumer starting to improve 
Apr. 17, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
We view the recent retail sales report in glass-half-full mode.
Weekly Update: 'Boston Strong' 
Apr. 17, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Monday's marathon will be the 119th; meanwhile, stocks continue to exhibit sideways characteristics
Market Memo: Spring is coming—time to plant more bullish bets 
Apr. 14, 2015 :: Stephen F. Auth
As our five worries fade, the market appears poised to rise
Weekly Update: In Central Pennsylvania, we added Seattle to the Wall of Worry 
Apr. 10, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Lower oil, a stronger dollar and tightening, oh my! All this worrying should make investors smile.
Orlando's Outlook: March jobs report lays a giant Easter egg 
Apr. 6, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
The U.S. economy has slowed due to a variety of headwinds.
Weekly Update: Now that LeBron is gone, Floridians hate anything that bounces 
Apr. 6, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Q1 softness may hit the economy and earnings but spring eventually should lift spirits and stocks
Weekly Update: They are filled with the spirit in the 'D' 
Mar. 27, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
There may be some shakiness in the next few weeks and months but the long-term looks good
Orlando's Outlook: Housing green shoots 
Mar. 26, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Improving labor market and consumer confidence have sparked an uptick in first-time home buyers.
Market Memo: Fed 'Apology Tour' underway 
Mar. 24, 2015 :: Stephen F. Auth
Yellen and colleagues go out of their way to reinforce lower for longer
Orlando's Outlook: March Madness 
Mar. 20, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
It doesn't appear the plunge in oil prices is over yet.
Weekly Update: Personally, I can be patient 
Mar. 20, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Perhaps a pullback is in the wings but the longer-term tone and trend to the market remains bullish
Orlando's Outlook: Buckle your seatbelts 
Mar. 13, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Despite accelerating strength in employment, questions rise about sustainability of growth and equity-market valuations.
Weekly Update: I'd prefer to hang with Italian men 
Mar. 13, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
With so much worry and doubt at its back, this secular bull has room to run
Market Memo: Softer tone merits caution—not withdrawal 
Mar. 10, 2015 :: Stephen F. Auth
Lower oil, lower rates and economic blahs likely to weigh on stocks near-term before fading
Orlando's Outlook: Hot February jobs data melts winter freeze 
Mar. 6, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Only 328,000 jobs were lost in February due to the inclement weather.
Weekly Update: Texans, they persevere 
Mar. 6, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Texans are scared about the markets, not oil, adding to a beautiful wall of worry
Weekly Update: I met a millennial 
Feb. 27, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
The younger generation gives me hope about the present and the future
Orlando's Outlook: Manufacturing sector loses steam 
Feb. 23, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
As a result of several manufacturing metrics slipping recently, GDP may soften during the first half of 2015.
Weekly Update: I realize the S&P made new highs this week but I'm so very cold 
Feb. 20, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Despite a weather-related slowing in some data, the outlook remains bullish
Orlando's Outlook: Christmas sales whiff on energy dividend 
Feb. 19, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Any way they're sliced, holiday sales disappointed and may trim next week's Q4 GDP revision
Weekly Update: Shake it off 
Feb. 13, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
The market chugs along as worries over Greece, Europe and earnings ease
Orlando's Outlook: Another 'January Barometer' coin toss? 
Feb. 10, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Fundamentals still matter most, and they bode well for an equity-market rebound from depressed January levels.
Weekly Update: We just want to have fun 
Feb. 6, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Low gas prices, rising wages and more jobs are giving consumers a lot of reasons to be happier
Orlando's Outlook: Across-the-board strength in jobs report 
Feb. 6, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
If this improvement in the labor market proves to be sustainable, then the Fed will be hard-pressed not to consider hiking interest rates.
Orlando's Outlook: Fourth-quarter GDP disappoints 
Jan. 30, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
But take heart: In 12 of the last 14 quarters, flash GDP was revised up by an average of 0.70%.
Weekly Update: The elephant in the room 
Jan. 30, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Lower oil prices are confusing investors for now but the benefits should lift their spirits later
Market Memo: Remember, pain before gain 
Jan. 29, 2015 :: Stephen F. Auth
Recent worries over global woes won't derail the economy or the bull, but it may provide better entry points for investors
Orlando's Outlook: Investors build "Wall of Worry" 
Jan. 23, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Strong GDP and corporate earnings growth trump investor concern over volatility.
Weekly Update: As Casablanca's Capt. Renault would say, 'I'm shocked! Shocked!' 
Jan. 23, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
ECB actions and lower oil should pay dividends down the road
Weekly Update: Where energy is concerned, 'big, old and ugly' may be beautiful 
Jan. 16, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
Investors seeking to call a bottom to oil should be careful but there are ways to benefit
Orlando's Outlook: Early 'January Barometer' flashes green 
Jan. 14, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
A convergence of indicators point to a positive 2015 for equities.
Orlando's Outlook: Weak wage growth keeps Fed on sidelines 
Jan. 9, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
Headline figures strong, but some troubling labor metrics lie beneath the surface.
2015 Outlook: Looking a gift horse in the mouth 
Jan. 9, 2015 :: Stephen F. Auth
Lower oil, lower rates and stronger dollar will do a lot more good than harm for markets, economy
Weekly Update: Welcome to the New Year ... now what should we worry about?! 
Jan. 9, 2015 :: Linda A. Duessel
It may come down to whether the U.S. is strong enough to keep the world afloat until better times come knocking at Europe's and China's doors
Orlando's Outlook: More of the same in 2015 
Jan. 2, 2015 :: Philip J. Orlando
We expect continued economic and corporate-earnings growth in 2015 to drive the S&P 500 up to 2,350.
Yearly Special: Welcome to the new age! 
Dec. 30, 2014 :: Linda A. Duessel
Fundamentals and technicals suggest the equity rally has plenty of room to run in 2015
Orlando's Outlook: 'Patient' Fed sparks powerful equity rebound 
Dec. 19, 2014 :: Philip J. Orlando
Fed Chair Yellen's commitment to lower for longer helps equities shake off oil worries and rally
Weekly Update: Merry Christmas, indeed! 
Dec. 19, 2014 :: Linda A. Duessel
Fed, stronger growth, lower oil and muted inflation are adding to the usual Santa Claus Rally
Market Memo: Goldilocks doesn't care whether 'time's' time is up 
Dec. 16, 2014 :: Stephen F. Auth
Collapsing oil prices are creating opportunities for long-term investors in the U.S. equity market
Orlando's Outlook: Ignore weak Black Friday 
Dec. 12, 2014 :: Philip J. Orlando
A stronger-than-expected consumer sales report for November should calm retailers' fears.
Weekly Update: To USA Today headline 'Falling Oil Threatens Recovery,' I say, 'Huh?' 
Dec. 12, 2014 :: Linda A. Duessel
Lower oil may be hurting markets but there's little reason to suspect it will derail economy
Labor market's Christmas surprise 
Dec. 5, 2014 :: Philip J. Orlando
The surge in payrolls is an unexpected, yet welcome gift from the BLS.
Weekly Update: You go girl! 
Dec. 5, 2014 :: Linda A. Duessel
There is not a lot in the way of the equity market's upward momentum