Market Views - Equity

Our experienced, specialized investment professionals have delivered disciplined equity portfolios for more than thirty years. Choose an article to read our views of today’s economy and global stock markets.

Orlando's Outlook: Oil policy reversal 
Jun. 22, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
Concerned about production drops in several troubled countries, OPEC and Russia will increase oil output.
Weekly Update: Don't go away MAD 
Jun. 22, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
There's more at stake with a trade war than the markets may appreciate.
Secular Bull Update: Patience is a virtue 
Jun. 19, 2018 :: Stephen Auth
Uncertainty over the trade war back-and-forth may create some resistance but the longer-term view still looks solid.
Orlando's Outlook: Welcome to Jay Powell's Fed 
Jun. 15, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
New leadership at the Fed looks to be even more transparent. The question is, will it also be more hawkish?
Weekly Update: If everybody's euphoric on Main Street, then ... 
Jun. 15, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
It may be worth reminding ourselves that this is a secular bull market for equities.
Weekly Update: 'War, what is it good for?' 
Jun. 8, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
As the wall of worry builds, the market keeps inching higher.
Orlando's Outlook: With worry comes opportunity 
Jun. 5, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
There could be noise in the coming weeks, but second-quarter earnings released in mid-July should be strong.
Weekly Update: 'Who needs 'em!' 
Jun. 1, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
Amid all the noise, the equity markets could be setting up for a run.
Orlando's Outlook: Surprisingly robust May jobs report 
Jun. 1, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
Lots to like in the labor report and little to keep the Fed from a June hike.
Q&A: Blockchain and the next industrial revolution 
May 30, 2018 :: Steven Chiavarone
While all the buzz is about bitcoin, the digital ledger technology that makes it possible may hold the most promise.
Weekly Update: Shall we discuss politics or shoes? 
May 25, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
Putting worries in perspective, what is there really to worry about now?
Orlando's Outlook: Delayed gratification for small caps 
May 23, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
The recent small-cap rally has legs.
Market Memo: Bearish market myths make for a buying opportunity 
May 21, 2018 :: Stephen Auth
When fundamentals debunk market myths, investors stand to gain.
Weekly Update: Pretty faces 
May 18, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
With all the talk of inflation's return to the U.S, the data has softened.
Orlando's Outlook: Strong 'Mapril' retail sales rebound 
May 17, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
Retail sales rebounded in the combined March and April months.
Orlando's Outlook: Inflation firming, not spiking 
May 11, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
This upward move of inflation is nothing to fear.
Weekly Update: My delightful colleague dropped me off at the airport and went for barbecue 
May 11, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
An up-leg may be building for stocks, but watch those yields.
Orlando's Outlook: Mixed bag for April labor 
May 4, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
Sluggish job creation and wage growth suggest just two more Fed hikes this year.
Weekly Update: Mayday, mayday! 
May 4, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
There are many reasons to worry, but are they good reasons?
Q&A: What's driving the markets today? 
May 1, 2018 :: Steven Chiavarone
Clearly blowout earnings aren't enough. Could it be fears about higher inflation and yields? A flattening yield curve? Even an eventual recession?
Weekly Update: I envision a perennial tan in 2028 
Apr. 27, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
3% and "cyclical peak" stirred the waters early this week, but it's hard to get too bothered when earnings keep coming in like they have been.
Orlando's Outlook: GDP stronger than expected 
Apr. 27, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
The Q1 economy had the best first-quarter growth in three years.
Orlando's Outlook: Separate the wheat from the chaff 
Apr. 20, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
The big picture is still good for the U.S. economy suggesting that equities could rally.
Weekly Update: If we all know it, isn't it already priced in? 
Apr. 20, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
Rosy expectations for first-quarter earnings have been around so long that beats are considered ho-hum unless they are really big beats.
Weekly Update: They all think he's 'crazy' but would still make a trade 
Apr. 13, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
Canadians don't much care for Trump but they care for their prime minster even less.
Orlando's Outlook: Equity market roller-coaster heading higher 
Apr. 13, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
Earnings take center stage and they are expected to be very good.
Weekly Update: Time and hope 
Apr. 6, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
A lot of reasons to see a new uptrend but will the president's trade threats get in the way?
Orlando's Outlook: Four'easters slow March jobs 
Apr. 6, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
The silver lining to the storms that impaired employment in March is that the Fed might slow its pace of hikes.
Market Memo: Despite rising risks, bullish thesis intact 
Apr. 3, 2018 :: Steven Chiavarone
As long as earnings grow and both inflation and interest-rate increases remain measured, there's more to like than dislike about equities.
Weekly Update: Why the face? 
Mar. 29, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
Fundamentals, technicals and seasonality suggest the worst is behind for the equity market.
Market Memo: The correction is over; time to add to equities 
Mar. 27, 2018 :: Stephen Auth
Federated raises its equity overweight in its stock-bond model to 80% of maximum as sell-off creates more attractive valuations.
Orlando's Outlook: March Madness, equity edition 
Mar. 26, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
Stocks may be poised to reverse their recent weakness.
Weekly Update: 'This is the first of many' 
Mar. 23, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
Market stumbles as Trump ramps up trade actions; might Q1 earnings prove a tonic and fuel an upside breakout?
Orlando's Outlook: Trade deficit domino effect 
Mar. 20, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
Trump's tariffs come with wide-ranging ramifications.
Weekly Update: A tall, powerful, aggressive woman 
Mar. 16, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
Amazon's reach is extending far beyond Seattle as it and other disruptive technology behemoths are helping keep inflation in check.
Market Memo: The small-cap case is solid 
Mar. 13, 2018 :: Gregory Sterzel
Here are three good reasons to believe the performance of small cap stocks may be ready to perk up.
Orlando's Outlook: In search of a one-armed economist 
Mar. 13, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
Federated's latest GDP house calls for 2018 and 2019.
Orlando's Outlook: Labor market perfection 
Mar. 9, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
The robust jobs report checked off every item on the market's wish list.
Weekly Update: This is going to be a big problem in 6 months 
Mar. 9, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
Concerns about coming wage inflation have been consistent for years; the reality so far has been anything but.
Weekly Update: 'Is 3 the new 4?' 
Mar. 2, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
As inflation-rate worries rattle markets, history suggest the fears may be overdone.
Market Memo: An opportunity, not an omen 
Mar. 2, 2018 :: Stephen Auth
The fundamentals and valuations remain solid, making the current pullback an opportunity, not an omen.
Orlando's Outlook: Is a retest inevitable? 
Mar. 1, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
Market volatility shows disconnect from economic fundamentals
In Short: Powell, in debut, supports bull case 
Feb. 27, 2018 :: Steven Chiavarone
Fed Chair strikes a balance between avoiding an overheating economy and assuring inflation reaches its 2% target.
Orlando's Outlook: Bottoming is a process 
Feb. 23, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
It will take time for the markets to fully know the new Fed's response to rising inflation expectations.
Weekly Update: When I die, I think I shall reincarnate ... 
Feb. 23, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
There are a lot of things to worry about. Maybe that's a good thing.
Market Memo: Reiterating bull call—stay overweight stocks and buy dips 
Feb. 22, 2018 :: Stephen Auth
Five reasons why the current volatility is an opportunity, not a threat.
Orlando's Outlook: Ho, ho humbug? 
Feb. 16, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
The downgrade in retail sales belies a healthy consumer.
Weekly Update: 'You look like Nancy Pelosi' 
Feb. 16, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
In California, where they sometimes say the wackiest things, advisors are worried that their clients aren't worried.
Weekly Update: What are they talking about?? 
Feb. 9, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
It appears this sell-off isn't about inflation and higher yields; it's about trading in volatility.
Q&A: What's driving dividends in 2018? 
Feb. 7, 2018 :: Deborah Bickerstaff
Volatility and rising rates aren't necessarily detrimental and can be good for dividend payers.
Orlando's Outlook: Buy on weakness 
Feb. 6, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
We view the recent market moves as a technical capitulation rather than a deterioration of solid fundamentals.
Market Memo: It's a healthy sell-off, not a harbinger of something worse 
Feb. 6, 2018 :: Steven Chiavarone
Correction prompts Federated to boost equity overweight in its stock-bond portfolio models.
Orlando's Outlook: Wage growth begins to accelerate 
Feb. 2, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
Wage pressure seems to finally have arrived for the long-tightening labor market.
Weekly Update: 'I hope you're right' 
Feb. 2, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
A little volatility can represent an opportunity.
Market Memo: 5 reasons 2018 should be good for growth strategies 
Jan. 30, 2018 :: Jordan Stuart
Earnings, tax reform, economic growth, IPOs and innovation should all be supportive of growth stocks this year.
Orlando's Outlook: Imports & inventories mask strong GDP 
Jan. 26, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
Poor headline GDP reading is not the full story.
Weekly Update: Is it a bubble? 
Jan. 26, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
It may be a frothy market but given the fundamentals and technicals, it's hardly a bubble.
Orlando's Outlook: FOMO? No, follow the growth 
Jan. 19, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
Tax cuts and stronger growth should boost earnings and stocks this year; we now have a year-end S&P 500 target of 3,100.
Weekly Update: These are the facts 
Jan. 19, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
And the facts suggest we are shifting from the Wall of Worry to the Year of Euphoria
Weekly Update: Laughs, hugs and a winter respite 
Jan. 12, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
Except for SALT, Californians like much of the country are feeling bullish.
Market Memo: Bitcoin? Meh. Blockchain? Now we're talking 
Jan. 11, 2018 :: Steven Chiavarone
For all the press and buzz surrounding bitcoin, the underlying technology that makes it work ultimately may prove more lasting and valuable.
Orlando's Outlook: Powerful start to the new year 
Jan. 10, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
The 'January Barometer' predicts another strong year for stocks.
Market Memo: Surprise, surprise—where the 2018 consensus is likely wrong 
Jan. 10, 2018 :: Stephen Auth
We see five risks skewing to the upside, not downside, and thus are raising our 2018 target on the S&P 500 to 3,100
Orlando's Outlook: December jobs report a lump of coal 
Jan. 5, 2018 :: Philip Orlando
Disappointing miss in the payrolls report sharply contrasts the strength of other employment measures.
Weekly Update: Will you be getting a raise this year? 
Jan. 5, 2018 :: Linda Duessel
The melt-up continues amid signs of accelerating growth and expectations that more people will be receiving more pay via raises and tax cuts.
Market Memo: Five things to watch this year 
Jan. 4, 2018 :: Steven Chiavarone
This economy and market is riding some strong tailwinds. But the answer to five key questions could determine if this bull has legs.
Orlando's 2018 Outlook: Can the new year top 2017? 
Dec. 22, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Counting the reasons we feel will result in a strong economy and market in 2018.
2018 Outlook: On the other hand ... 
Dec. 22, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
There are a lot of reasons to believe the risk-on trade will continue; there are a lot of reasons that suggest that maybe it won't.
2018 Outlook: Tax bill, the Christmas gift that should keep on giving 
Dec. 20, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
The near-term impact is a plus, but it's the longer-term additions that may take this economy and market to new heights.
Tax Reform Special: What the bill means for investors 
Dec. 20, 2017 ::
Faster growth, higher earnings will be good for stocks, but there are some countervailing forces for bonds.
Orlando's Outlook: Consumer spending accelerates into Christmas 
Dec. 15, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Data suggest this could be the best holiday sales season since 2011.
Weekly Update: I don't care about the presents underneath the Christmas tree 
Dec. 15, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
The fundamentals continue to be favorable for stocks but there are potential stumbling blocks ahead.
Orlando's Outlook: 'Fairway' report on December jobs 
Dec. 8, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Better-than-expected payroll gains and hours worked point to a Fed hike and then a possible Santa Claus rally.
Weekly Update: Men are from Mars, women are from Venus and millennials are from ... 
Dec. 8, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Is that Santa I see? Could be, as market forces suggest a mid-December rally could be in the offing.
Q&A: Opportunities ahead for dividend investors 
Dec. 5, 2017 :: Linda Bakhshian
Continued growth, a gradual Fed and tax reform should all be supportive for dividend-paying companies.
Weekly Update: Boy, this melt-up could use a nice political headline 
Dec. 1, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
And it got it with news that Flynn is cooperating with the special probe. Still, the market appears giddy over prospects of tax reform.
Orlando's Outlook: Goldilocks revisited 
Dec. 1, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
On strong economic growth, we advise staying the course in the market.
2018 Outlook: Still riding the secular bull 
Dec. 1, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
As long as the bears keep whining while the fundamentals keep improving, this remarkable run should keep going.
Market Memo: Investors and the Industrial Revolution 3.0 
Nov. 29, 2017 :: Steven Chiavarone
The digital revolution is reshaping the economy and creating new opportunities much as past industrial revolutions did.
Orlando's Outlook: OPEC's perfect storm 
Nov. 22, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Forces are lining up to keep oil around $60/barrel.
Weekly Special: Happy Thanksgiving 
Nov. 22, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Linda shares some items on tax reform, the labor market, changing consumer tastes and millennials.
Weekly Update: The gentlemen are plentiful in Chi-Town 
Nov. 17, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
The active-passive debate heats up as correlations start to fall.
Orlando's Outlook: Revisiting immigration reform as we approach Thanksgiving 
Nov. 17, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
A solution to the immigration debate is possible as the goals of each side are not mutually exclusive.
Orlando's Outlook: Reshaping the Fed 
Nov. 10, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Trump has the opportunity to impact monetary policy, economic growth and market performance by filling open posts.
Weekly Update: What a time to be alive! 
Nov. 10, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
As we near the end of a very strong 2017, there are signs that investors are taking some chips off the table and calling it a year.
Orlando's Outlook: Jobs rebound, but entire report is mixed 
Nov. 3, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
There are enough positives in the jobs report to keep the Fed on track for another hike.
Weekly Update: Cold winds blowing 
Nov. 3, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Tax-reform messiness and lack of market breadth could spawn an equity sell-off. That's OK, because it would just serve to extend the up-cycle.
Weekly Update: It's important to know what you're paying for 
Oct. 27, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
The next few weeks should make clear what is and isn't possible on the tax-reform front. Meanwhile, the market carries on.
Orlando's Outlook: What hurricanes? 
Oct. 27, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
The prospect of fiscal policy reform continues to stir animal spirits among businesses and consumers.
Orlando's Outlook: Happy Anniversary 
Oct. 20, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
The market and economy today bear little-to-no resemblance to 1987.
Weekly Update: The devil didn't just go to Georgia 
Oct. 20, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
As resilient Texans rebuild, they are on the lookout for a big sell-off. It could come but there's still a lot to like about this market.
Market Memo: 30 years later, the 'Ghost of 1987' still haunts 
Oct. 16, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
The worst one-day decline in market history taught us many lessons; one of them is how today's environment is different.
Weekly Update: Blinded by the light 
Oct. 13, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
What if tax reform doesn't come to pass?
Orlando's Outlook: Retail redemption 
Oct. 13, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Retail sales rose in September, portending a strong holiday shopping season.
Orlando's Outlook: This too shall pass 
Oct. 6, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
We expect the labor market to bounce back in the fourth quarter.
Weekly Update: Greed 
Oct. 6, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Momentum suggests this rally may continue for awhile. What could go wrong?
Orlando's Outlook: Let's make a deal 
Sept. 29, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Trump’s opening tax salvo will likely be subject to the usual dealing in Washington.
Weekly Update: Did you flood? 
Sept. 29, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Many advisors seem to be expecting a melt-up even if their clients aren't.
Market Memo: Correction, such as it was, is over as market is set to move higher 
Sept. 29, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
Balance of risks leaning toward our S&P 3,000 target.
Weekly Update: Mother (!) Nature 
Sept. 22, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
She sure is wreaking havoc, but there's no sign of significant post-hurricane weakness.
Orlando's Outlook: Fed finally closes the loop 
Sept. 22, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
The Fed will unwind its balance sheet, but Yellen may not be there for much of it.
Market Memo: We're still bullish on small caps 
Sept. 19, 2017 :: Gregory Sterzel
Ducks are lining up for a potential small-cap rally in coming months.
Orlando's Outlook: Skunk at a picnic 
Sept. 15, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Retail sales in August were weak, but we haven't seen the entire picture yet.
Weekly Update: Crypto-nite 
Sept. 15, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Forget bitcoin. The real news is the bullish combination of improving global growth and the prospect for peppier fiscal stimulus.
Market Memo: Maybe Trump is proving a point 
Sept. 14, 2017 :: Jordan Stuart
As Washington fiddles, companies are hiring and investing more and the equity market is moving higher.
Weekly Update: 'Whatever it takes' equals bullish for stocks 
Sept. 8, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
All the rebuilding and recovery efforts, combined with an even more cautious Fed, are likely to prove highly stimulative and positive for equities.
Orlando's Outlook: Hurricanes pose third-quarter risk 
Sept. 8, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
GDP will take a big hit from Harvey and Irma, but the rebuilding should add to future growth.
Orlando's Outlook: Wonky August payrolls miss yet again 
Sept. 1, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Better to wait for the revisions to August's labor report to get the real story.
Weekly Update: Hello? Is anyone out there? 
Sept. 1, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Harvey throws wrinkle into outlook but could bring Congress together.
Orlando's Outlook: Yellen avoids Jackson Hole policy discussion 
Aug. 25, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
The Fed chair instead promotes maintaining post-crisis financial regulation, leaving the central bank's normalization timeline somewhat unclear.
Weekly Update: Totality 
Aug. 25, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Total eclipses tend to occur during periods of disruption.
Market Memo: Caught in a waiting game 
Aug. 22, 2017 :: Jordan Stuart
Instead of trying to time the market, investors may be better served by just focusing on good companies.
Weekly Update: It's simple math 
Aug. 18, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
The math favors a continuing secular bull despite all the geopolitical angst.
Orlando's Outlook: How can we fix health care? 
Aug. 15, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
With a bipartisan compromise to keep parts of ACA most people want, but paid in economically sound manner.
Market Memo: Summer storms won't derail the long cycle 
Aug. 11, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
A near-term pullback is likely, but a material threat to the secular bull market is not.
Orlando's Outlook: Is Fed's leadership transition a market risk? 
Aug. 8, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Who will be Fed Chair for the next four years and how might the market react?
Orlando's Outlook: Another solid jobs report 
Aug. 4, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
This week's slew of employment data affirms a strong labor market.
Weekly Update: I really must get a pedicure 
Aug. 4, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Earnings and fundamentals continue to trump—no pun intended—the D.C. chaos.
Orlando's Outlook: Solid second-quarter GDP keeps Fed on pace 
Jul. 28, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
Q2 GDP more than doubled that of the first quarter.
Weekly Update: Jimmy, haven't you heard? Inflation is MIA 
Jul. 28, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
A pullback is possible as we enter a seasonally weak period but the longer view remains bullish.
Orlando's Outlook: Education the key to millennial financial success 
Jul. 21, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
New solutions are needed to address the growing student-debt levels in the U.S.
Weekly Update: 'It's not even the same category.' True that! 
Jul. 21, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
The markets would probably be just as happy if Republicans move on to tax reform and save health care for another day.
Market Memo: Waiting for Godot can be frustrating 
Jul. 19, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
Four key drivers should help lift this market further, but getting there will take patience.
Weekly Update: Who's your guru? 
Jul. 14, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Inflation reports and Yellen suggest rates are going to be very market friendly for quite a while.
Orlando's Outlook: Second wind? 
Jul. 13, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
We’re sticking to our guns that the S&P 500 will grind up toward our 2,500 year-end target.
Orlando's Outlook: Surprisingly strong June jobs report keeps Fed on pace 
Jul. 7, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
It’s clear the anemic March labor market report was a weather-impaired aberration.
Weekly Special: Dark thoughts for the beach ... 
Jul. 4, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
A compendium of research gathered by Linda Duessel doesn't include much to smile about.
Orlando's Outlook: Is millennial stress weighing on housing and autos? 
Jun. 30, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
From a sharing economy to high college debt, millennials just don't seem that interested in buying homes and cars.
Weekly Update: 'Hey carebot, how about another margarita?' 
Jun. 30, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
With the beach on her mind, Linda opines about a market that's been as gentle as a summer breeze.
Equity Outlook: Summer doldrums sign of hope, not complacency 
Jun. 27, 2017 :: Stephen Auth
Equity valuations and earnings remain market supportive, abetted by a solid economic backdrop and favorable government and monetary policies.
Orlando's Outlook: Round trip 
Jun. 9, 2017 :: Philip Orlando
The latest Federated Macro Policy Committee observations of and positions on the U.S. economy.
Weekly Update: I can't predict the future 
Jun. 2, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Slow growth and low inflation are just fine for equities.
Weekly Update: On the road again 
Apr. 13, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
A South Florida visit found many still fearful and that may be good for equities.
Weekly Update: Don't be a gambler, be an investor 
Mar. 31, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
Beyond all the noise, there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about stocks for the longer term.
Weekly Update: Nothingburger 
Mar. 17, 2017 :: Linda Duessel
The trend for stocks remains up and there's not a lot getting in the way.
Market Memo: So far, OPEC's 'grand bargain' is grand ... for U.S. shale 
Jan. 19, 2017 :: Lila Manassa Murphy
As planned production cuts support higher prices, U.S. shale producers are ramping up rig activity.
Market Memo: Recent trip to Europe confirms 'cloudy with a chance of sun' forecast 
Jun. 14, 2016 :: Stephen Auth
Observations while in Europe reaffirm Federated's cautious stance.
Orlando's Outlook: Strong December jobs report doesn't matter for markets 
Jan. 8, 2016 :: Philip J Orlando
The labor market was much stronger than expected in December, which should have quelled some of the China-driven angst that has roiled global markets thus far in 2016.

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