OnPoint White Paper

2017 Outlook: This recovery's getting older and better

Executive Summary

  • Republican control of the White House and Congress should result in a more business and investor-friendly environment that is supportive of stocks and constructive for the credit side of the bond market.

  • Federated has put price targets of 2,350 and 2,500 on the S&P 500 for 2017 and 2018, respectively, on an expected lift to earnings under the new Republican regime’s agenda.

  • Federated also has revised up its GDP growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018, putting real growth at 2.5% and 3%, respectively, for the two years.

  • The biggest shift for business is “a new tone at the top’’ that is encouraging the private sector to grow, take risks and be capitalists, says Federated’s Stephen Auth. “Capitalism is suddenly
    fashionable again.”

  • Major policy changes are unlikely to come quickly, though Trump and Congress are likely to address corporate and individual tax reform, the regulatory environment, health care and trade.

  • Post-election valuations arguably are stretched, but Federated would view pullbacks as opportunities to average in at more attractive prices.

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